Tuesday, November 13, 2018

116th Senate Will Look Much Like The 115th Senate

ARIZONA Senate Race

FLORIDA Senate Race

If you listened to the cable news talking heads on election night, you might think the Republicans scored a huge victory in the Senate elections -- flipping flipping four Democratic seats while losing only one seat. That would have given them a 54 to 46 majority.

But those talking heads were counting chickens before they were hatched. They were right about three seats on election night. The Republicans flipped three seats (North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana), while the Democrats flipped one (Nevada).

That left two seats to be decided -- Arizona and Florida. While McSally (R) led in Arizona on election night, as more votes were counted Sinema (D) has surged into the lead by over 32,000 votes. While there are still more votes to be counted, it now looks like the Democrats will flip that seat. That makes it 52 to 47 in favor of the GOP.

Then there's Florida, which is very close. Right now, Scott (R) leads by 12,562 out of more than 8 million votes. That has triggered a recount. If Nelson (D) can scrounge up 13,000 votes in the recount, then the GOP majority in the Senate will be 52 to 48. If not, then the GOP will have a 53 to 47 edge.

Either way, the Senate is going to look a whole lot like it looks currently. The Republicans will have a small edge, but not enough to do everything they want -- especially with the Democrats firmly in control of the House of Representatives.

NOTE -- 2020 could flip the Senate though. While most seats up for grabs were Democratic seats in 2018, the opposite will be true in 2020 (with 22 GOP seats up and only 11 Democratic seats). And those Republicans will have the disadvantage of running with Trump at the top of their ticket.

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