The Public Expects Mueller's Investigation To Find Evidence Of A Trump Campaign Conspiracy With Russia

The Mueller investigation was started to find out whether there was a conspiracy between Donald Trump's campaign and Russia to affect the 2016 election for president. It looks like the investigation has broadened to include other possible criminal acts by Trump and his campaign, but the most interesting and troubling part of the investigation for most people remains the possible conspiracy with Russia.

Trump has tried to denigrate the investigation by saying it's a "witch hunt", that there was no collusion, and that there is no law against collusion. Those are rather pathetic attempts at defending himself. We know it's not a witch hunt because of the large number of indictments and convictions that have already happened (and more expected to happen). And while Trump is right that there's no law against collusion, that's only because the law uses a different word -- conspiracy.

So, did the Trump campaign conspire with Russia to affect the 2016 presidential race? The American public seems to think so. About 53% of registered voters (and 49% of all adults) believe evidence of conspiracy will be found by the Mueller investigation. Only 33% of registered voters (and 30% of all adults) believe no evidence of a conspiracy will be found.

The chart above uses information contained in a new Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between December 9th and 11th of a national sample of 1,500 adults (including 1,303 registered voters). The margin of error for adults is 3.1 points, and for registered voters is 2.8 point.