Sunday, March 24, 2019

Trump Policies May Be Leading The U.S. To A Recession


The chart above and the statement below are from Bloomberg.com.

The Treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since the last crisis Friday, triggering the first reliable market signal of an impending recession and rate-cutting cycle.
The gap between the three-month and 10-year yields vanished as a surge of buying pushed the latter to a 14-month low of 2.416 percent. Inversion is considered a reliable harbinger of recession in the U.S., within roughly the next 18 months.
Donald Trump inherited a growing and healthy economy from President Obama. He won't admit that, but it's true. Instead, he likes to brag about how well he is doing with the economy.
Unfortunately for U.S. citizens, that may just be another of Trump's thousands of lies. We already had heard from the government that GDP will not be the rosy figure that Trump has predicted this year. It is expected to drop to about 2%, and is likely to go even lower next year.
Now we get this troubling information about the Treasury yield curve. Normally 10 year yields would be much larger than those for 3 months. That fact that they are now equal means too many investors see trouble coming for the economy -- trouble that could lead to a new recession.

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