Trump's Pinning Re-Election Hopes On His Immigration Policy

The chart above reflects the results of the latest Economics / YouGov Poll -- done between May 26th and 28th of a national sample of 1,500 adults (including 1,120 registered voters). The margin of error for adults is 2.6 points, and for registered voters is 3 points.

Trump is convinced that he won in 2016 by taking a hard stance on immigration -- especially the immigration of non-whites and refugees from south of the border. And it's looking more and more like he's going to pin his hope of re-election on his hardline and mean-spirited immigration policies.

That might be a bad mistake, because most people don't like the way he's handling immigration. Note that both adults and registered voters show more people opposing Trump's immigration policies than approving of them. Especially important is the split between men and women. While men approve of Trump's policies by a 10 point margin, women disapprove by a 14 point margin -- and women traditionally vote in larger numbers than men do.

Here is part of an op-ed in The Washington Post by Toluse Olorunnipa on Trump betting on immigration to stay in office:

Trump has shut down the government, declared a national emergency over his proposed border wall, threatened to close the U.S.-Mexico border, cut off funding for Northern Triangle countries, sent additional troops to the border, fired his top immigration officials, selected an immigration “czar,” pitched an overhaul of the legal immigration system and called for releasing immigrant detainees into so-called sanctuary cities.

On Thursday, he ratcheted up the pressure again by threatening to slap tariffs as high as 25 percent on all goods imported from Mexico — a move that risks harming the economy and undermining a trade deal he had been championing as a potential legislative achievement under divided government.

The wave of border policies flowing from the White House offers a clear signal that Trump’s reelection bid is likely to focus on immigration more than any other topic — a cause that animates his base but also highlights his failure to contain the flow of Central American migrants coming to the United States in record numbers.

“He certainly believes that immigration is a key issue that got him elected and, looking at the 2020 election, he’s trying to show that he’s trying to do something,” said Theresa Brown, a former policy official at the Department of Homeland Security who works at the Bipartisan Policy Center. “He knows that the situation that people are seeing every day shows that he’s not been successful. He has not secured the border.”

For a president who won an electoral college victory in 2016 based on a hard-line immigration message and a promise to make the Mexican government fund construction of a border wall, Trump’s latest gambit is an attempt to cover for the lack of progress on a signature campaign pledge, Brown said. . . .

Trump announced Thursday that he would place a 5 percent tariff starting June 10 on all goods coming into the United States from Mexico, a move that would affect millions of products, including cars, produce and equipment. Trump said the tariffs would increase by five percentage points each month until Mexico stopped migrants from entering the United States. . . .

But business leaders, free-market conservatives and some Republican lawmakers warned that Americans ultimately will pay the price. . . .

Critics say it is the president’s flair for the dramatic that has worsened the situation at the border, as frenetic policies and statements emanating from the White House have added to a sense of chaos. Since December, Trump has attempted numerous strategies aimed at the border — from forcing a government shutdown to declaring a national emergency to threatening to close the border altogether.

None of it made a dent in the growing flow of migrants; border crossings are expected to surpass the April record of 109,000 in May.

As Trump has tried out different policy approaches, he has made his tough-on-immigration stance a centerpiece of his campaign speech. He often tells supporters at rallies that “the wall is being built,” when, in fact, the government is primarily replacing existing fencing, and promises there will be 400 miles of steel slats constructed before voters head to the polls in 2020.

He rarely mentions that the number of migrants apprehended at the border has grown steadily each month under his watch, a sign that his efforts so far have failed.

“His gut response to these things is toughen up the border, send the military, build the wall,” said Brown. “But the things he’s attempted to do have not worked.”