Demographic Change (& Trump) Should Terrify Republicans

Donald Trump has recently made obviously racist remarks (about women of color in the Democratic Party). It was not a mistake. Trump is proud of his racist remarks, and continues to repeat them. He has decided he does not need votes from anyone but racist whites. he is going to campaign on his racism in 2020, and believes he can scare enough white voters into re-electing him.

And that seems to be OK with congressional Republicans. They have been remarkably silent about Trump's racism, and most House Republicans refused to vote to condemn the racist remarks. It looks like they are going to be happy to go into the 2020 election being led by a racist -- even though the leader of their party brands all party officials with his beliefs.

That, combined with the changing demographics of this country, should terrify all Republicans. That did not work in the 2018 election, and I believe, it is unlikely to work in 2020. And even if it could work for one more election, the changing demographics (see chart above) will very soon insure that it never works again. This is a diverse and multi-cultural nation -- and it becomes more so with each passing day.

If Republicans were smart, they would change their policies to appeal to the growing diversity. But they haven't, and are unlikely to in the future. I'm not sure their largely racist base would let them anyway.

They have tried to protect their party by gerrymandering, putting a citizenship question on the census, building a wall on our Southern border, denying refugees entry into this country, and voter suppression of minority voters. None of those efforts will succeed for long. The demographic change is overwhelming and unstoppable.

Here is how Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen describe this threat to Republicans at Axios.com:

The single biggest threat to Republicans' long-term viability is demographics.

The big picture: The numbers simply do not lie. America, as a whole, and swing states, in particular, are growing more diverse, more quickly. There is no way Republicans can change birth rates or curb this trend — and there's not a single demographic megatrend that favors Republicans.

Why it matters: President Trump’s short-term calculation to stir up white voters with race-baiting rhetoric might very well echo for a generation. . . .

For any Republican thinking past 2020, here are numbers to fear, reported by Axios' Stef Kight:

• The Hispanic share of the population has grown in every state since 2000, according to Census data.
• Hispanic people now make up a quarter of the population in Florida, almost a third of the population in Arizona and 39% of Texas — all Trump states in 2016 that are becoming more winnable by Democrats.
• Florida and Texas, two of the big electoral giants that voted for Trump, are witnessing the fastest non-white population growth. 

This wave is only accelerating, as Stef reported in "America's majority minority future":

• Next year, the entire under-18 population will be majority non-white, according to Brookings demographer William Frey.
• In less than a decade, the under-30 population will be majority non-white.

Between the lines: Trump clearly thinks this is good short-term politics.

• Truth is: It's unknowable, though highly debatable.
• Long-term, it seems unambiguous: If you need more African American and Hispanic voters, maligning and marginalizing them strikes even some inside this White House as stupid politics.