Will Trump Remain A Political Force Or Just Fade Away?

Many Republicans in Congress act like they are still afraid of Donald Trump. They still say that he actually won the election, and it was stolen from him.

I don't think they really believe that. They are just afraid that if they tell the truth, then Trump will see that they have a well-funded primary opponent a couple of years from now. They are just political cowards.

Is Trump still going to be a major political influence in a couple of years? I don't think so. I think he's going to fade into history fairly quickly, and soon will be just a bad memory. Here's why I think that.

First, in the latest Politico/Morning Consult Poll about 20% of Republicans would approve of the Senate convicting Trump. They see Trump as a liability, and want him out of Republican politics.

Second, Trump is considering starting a new political party that he can control (the Patriot's Party). This would be a huge mistake, but Trump's not a very smart person and I think he really might do that. That would drain more GOP support away from him, because they would see it as splitting the party and helping Democrats.

Third, he no longer has his social media megaphone (especially Twitter). Lying on Twitter was the major weapon he had in maintaining support. Without it, he is virtually mute.

Fourth, even some of his hardcore radical right supporters are starting to abandon him. These were the core of his support. They attacked Congress at his urging, and were willing to do more to keep him in power. But they wanted something from him also. Many of those arrested wanted pardons, but they didn't get them. He pardoned some of his rich friends, and then tucked-tail and flew to Florida -- leaving his supporters to face the music.

Now some of the groups that supported him are backing away. Here's what The New York Times says about the Proud Boys:

“As Mr. Trump departed the White House on Wednesday, the Proud Boys, once among his staunchest supporters, have also started leaving his side. In dozens of conversations on social media sites like Gab and Telegram, members of the group have begun calling Mr. Trump a ‘shill’ and ‘extraordinarily weak,’ according to messages reviewed by The New York Times. They have also urged supporters to stop attending rallies and protests held for Mr. Trump or the Republican Party.”

“On social media, Proud Boys participants have complained about his willingness to leave office and said his disavowal of the Capitol rampage was an act of betrayal. And Mr. Trump, cut off on Facebook and Twitter, has been unable to talk directly to them to soothe their concerns or issue new rallying cries.”

And here's what The New York Times said about how the QAnon conspiracy nuts are now thinking: 

“Followers of QAnon, the pro-Trump conspiracy theory, have spent weeks anticipating that Wednesday would be the ‘Great Awakening’ — a day, long foretold in QAnon prophecy, when top Democrats would be arrested for running a global sex trafficking ring and President Trump would seize a second term in office,” the New York Timesreports.

“But as President Biden took office and Mr. Trump landed in Florida, with no mass arrests in sight, some believers struggled to harmonize the falsehoods with the inauguration on their TVs.”

“Some QAnon believers tried to rejigger their theories to accommodate a transfer of power to Mr. Biden. Several large QAnon groups discussed on Wednesday the possibility that they had been wrong about Mr. Biden, and that the incoming president was actually part of Mr. Trump’s effort to take down the global cabal.”