46% Say They Would Vote For A Third Party (But They Won't)

Former Democrat Andrew Yang and former Republican Christine Todd Whitman have formed another political party. They believe it is time for a third party. Of course, this ignores the fact that there are already several "third parties" -- the Green Party, the Libertarian Party, the American Independent Party, the Constitution Party, and several others.

They are calling their new party the Forward Party, and are hoping it will appeal to moderates. But so far, the party has no platform or stated beliefs (other than to give Americans more choices in elections). They hope to have events in a dozen cities this Fall to roll out a platform. The problem with that is that there's no issues that are considered thoroughly moderate. Each issue they claim will immediately be labeled as either on the left or the right, and moderates will quickly become disenchanted.

As the chart above shows, about 46% of the public say they would vote for a third party (Economist / YouGov Poll done between July 30th and August 2nd of a sample of 1,500 adults with a 3 point margin of error). But that has not been what has happened in our history. Third parties, even established ones like the Green and Libertarian parties, don't get enough votes to matter much.

I think this new party will get few votes, if it can even get candidates on the ballot by November. I think they are shooting for the 2024 election, but if they survive that long, they'll be unlikely to make much difference.

The problem they face is that very few voters are really independents. Most, if they are not members of one of the two major parties, at least lean strongly toward one of them. Voters will have two fears that will keep them from voting for the new Forward Party. First, they will be afraid of wasting their vote in a hopeless endeavor. Second, they will be afraid that voting for a third party will allow the major party they like the least to win -- whether it be the Democrats or Republicans.

The Forward Party is not a terrible idea. We could use another party near the middle now that the Republican Party has become extremist. But it's an idea that will fail. While they complain, Americans like their two-party system.