Dems Have 2 Good Issues - Dobbs & The Menace Of MAGA

 

Democrats have two great issues to campaign on this year -- Dobbs (the Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe vs. Wade) and the menace the MAGA movement poses to this nation. Here's how Jennifer Rubin puts it in The Washington Post:

As we have noted, since the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision stripped women of the fundamental right to control their own health-care decisions, more women than men, and more Democrats than Republicans, have registered to vote in many states. That trend is continuing as other evidence mounts of a Dobbs backlash in November.

The gender gap is prominent in the key swing state of Pennsylvania. The Philadelphia Inquirer reports, “62% of women registering since Dobbsregistered as Democrats, 15% as Republicans; 54% were younger than 25.” The Democratic group Turn PA Blue, the paper reports, “has seen an influx in women interested in registering to vote and they’ve upped their registration efforts and voter outreach,” starting new phone and online conversations with women voters.

Dana Brown, executive director at the Pennsylvania Center for Women in Politics, told the Inquirer: “Many people have been mobilizing since the decision to register voters, particularly in the younger demographic, because that’s where you have the opportunity for growth.” Along with Democrats’ historic legislation on climate change, they now have a message that can resonate with younger voters who traditionally have been less likely to turn out.

Meanwhile, a Pew Research Center poll reports: “A majority of registered voters (56%) say the issue of abortion will be very important in their midterm vote, up from 43% in March. Virtually all of the increase has come among Democrats: 71% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters rate abortion as very important; fewer than half (46%) said this in March.” That is a remarkable turnaround, one that confirms the registration trend.

Democrats hold a slight advantage in generic polling (44 to 42 percent), and they’ve made progress in another key measure, Pew says: “Democrats are now almost as likely as Republicans to say it ‘really matters’ which party gains control of Congress in this fall’s midterms, which marks a change since March, when a significantly smaller share of Democrats than Republicans said this.”

Whether it is abortion, Democrats’ overall legislative success or reminders of the MAGA anti-law enforcement, pro-insurrection bent, Democrats have helped close the enthusiasm gap. The most recent NBC News poll finds: “According to the survey, 68% of Republicans express a high level of interest in the upcoming election — registering either a ‘9′ or ’10’ on a 10-point scale — versus 66% for Democrats.” That is within the poll’s margin of error. Moreover, “That 2-point GOP advantage is down from 17 points in March and 8 points in May.”

While the media narrative suggests that President Biden’s relatively low poll numbers are a drag on his party, there is little evidence to indicate that is true. In swing states, House and Senate candidates, in many instances, are running well ahead of Biden’s approval rating.

Frankly, it’s the GOP whose leader is a weight around the necks of candidates he endorsed and have gone all-in to back the “big lie.” (That NBC poll shows “57% of registered voters say that the investigations into alleged wrongdoing by Trump should continue, while 40% say they should stop.”) Republican strategist Karl Rove recognizes that former president Donald Trump is a drag on the party, telling Fox News viewers: “The more we talk about that and the less we talk about the problems that we face as a country here and now, the better off the Democrats are. It raises their enthusiasm, dampens the Republican enthusiasm.”

Tying radical election-deniers to Trump in swing states and competitive districts will be an asset to Democrats, especially if Trump wants to spend his time bashing the FBI, talking about taking secrets from the White House and discussing his support for the violent insurrectionistsof Jan. 6.

In short, Democrats might be riding a wave of enthusiasm and anti-Dobbs anger as they head into the midterms. And with Biden much less of a drag than Trump, the president can be used judiciously on the trail to tout his popular accomplishments and hit GOP extremism. As for Trump, Democrats would like nothing better than to see him out in competitive elections reminding voters of the menace he poses to American democracy.