The chart above reflects the results of the Morning Consult Poll -- done between September 9th and 18th of 2,716 likely voters in Texas, with a 2 point margin of error.
This is a respected poll. It shows that the Senate race in Texas is a lot closer than most of the pundits thought. It's basically a dead heat, and it's going to boil down to which side gets their voters out.
I think it probably still slightly favors Cruz, but if some Republicans think they have the race in the bag because Texas is a red state, and they stay home, Allred (and maybe even Harris) could win.
How can this be in red state Texas? For one thing, Cruz is not well liked by Texans. He has a less than 50% favorable rating. He also suffers because of his stand on abortion. And he has voted twice against a bill to assure access to IVF procedures.
Cruz also voted against a border bill that would have significantly reduced undocumented immigration - just so Trump could keep it as a campaign issue.
Allred voted for the border bill, voted for the bill to assure access to IVF, and supports reproductive freedom for women (which is popular even in Texas).
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