Trump's Withdrawal Is The Best Thing For ISIS In Months

(Cartoon image is by Jimmy Margulies at jimmymargulies.com.)



Donald Trump's abrupt and senseless withdrawal from northern Syria is disastrous for our best allies in that area -- the Kurds. It allows them to become the victims of ethnic cleansing by Turkey -- who is forcibly removing them from their homeland and replacing them with Arabs.

There are also some winners from Trump's actions -- notably Turkey, Syria, and Russia (who is now going to help Turkey kick the Kurds out. And there is another big winner -- ISIS. Trump continues to brag about how he has defeated ISIS, but his action gives ISIS the best chance they have had to come back and be a danger to the rest of the world -- including the United States.

The following is part of an op-ed on the situation by David D. Kirkpatrick (pictured on upper left) and Eric Schmitt (pictured on upper right) in The New York Times:

American forces and their Kurdish-led partners in Syria had been conducting as many as a dozen counterterrorism missions a day against Islamic State militants, officials said. That has stopped.

Those same partners, the Syrian Democratic Forces, had also been quietly releasing some Islamic State prisoners and incorporating them into their ranks, in part as a way to keep them under watch. That, too, is now in jeopardy. 

And across Syria’s porous border with Iraq, Islamic State fighters are conducting a campaign of assassination against local village headmen, in part to intimidate government informants. 

When President Trump announced this month that he would pull American troops out of northern Syria and make way for a Turkish attack on the Kurds, Washington’s onetime allies, many warned that he was removing the spearhead of the campaign to defeat the Islamic State, also known as ISIS.

Now, analysts say that Mr. Trump’s pullout has handed the Islamic State its biggest win in more than four years and greatly improved its prospects. With American forces rushing for the exits, in fact, American officials said last week that they were already losing their ability to collect critical intelligence about the group’s operations on the ground. 

“There is no question that ISIS is one of the big winners in what is happening in Syria,” said Lina Khatib, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, a research center in London.

Cutting support for the Syrian Democratic Forces has crippled the ability of the United States and its former partners to hunt down the group’s remnants.

News of the American withdrawal set off jubilation among Islamic State supporters on social media and encrypted chat networks. It has lifted the morale of fighters in affiliates as far away as Libya and Nigeria.

And, by removing a critical counterforce, the pullout has eased the re-emergence of the Islamic State’s core as a terrorist network or a more conventional, and potentially long-lasting, insurgency based in Syria and Iraq.

Although Mr. Trump has repeatedly declared victory over the Islamic State — even boasting to congressional leaders last week that he had personally “captured ISIS” — it remains a threat. After the loss in March of the last patch of the territory it once held across Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State dispersed its supporters and fighters to blend in with the larger population or to hide out in remote deserts and mountains.

The group retains as many as 18,000 “members” in Iraq and Syria, including up to 3,000 foreigners, according to estimates cited in a recent Pentagon report. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the Islamic State’s self-proclaimed caliph, is still at large.

Public Disagrees With Trump About Who Is Friend Of U.S.

The charts above reflect the results of the latest Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between October 13th and 15th of a national sample of 1,500 adults, with a 2.7 point margin of error.

The countries that Donald Trump are the friendliest with are Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey -- all ruled by a strong dictator (or king). He actually seems to think these countries are our friends and allies.

The American public does not agree. A clear majority (66%) does not think Russia is a friend, and a plurality says Saudi Arabia (40%) and Turkey (43%) are not our friends. Americans do think the Syrian Kurds are our friends though (a plurality of 46%) -- but sadly, these are the people Trump has betrayed.

Admiral McRaven Says It's Time To Replace Trump

Donald Trump is bragging about what a great deal he "negotiated" with Turkey. The truth is that it was a terrible deal. The deal gave Turkey everything it wanted, while betraying our best allies in the region -- the Kurds.

Those who know the military realities in that area (and the world), are shocked at Trump's betrayal -- and that includes some of our best military minds.

The following is an op-ed in The New York Times by former Admiral William H. McRaven (who was in command of the Seal Team that killed Osama bin Laden). He writes:

Last week I attended two memorable events that reminded me why we care so very much about this nation and also why our future may be in peril. 

The first was a change of command ceremony for a storied Army unit in which one general officer passed authority to another. The second event was an annual gala for the Office of Strategic Services (O.S.S.) Society that recognizes past and present members of the intelligence and Special Operations community for their heroism and sacrifice to the nation. What struck me was the stark contrast between the words and deeds heralded at those events — and the words and deeds emanating from the White House.

On the parade field at Fort Bragg, N.C., where tens of thousands of soldiers have marched either preparing to go to war or returning from it, the two generals, highly decorated, impeccably dressed, cleareyed and strong of character, were humbled by the moment. 

They understood the awesome responsibility that the nation had placed on their shoulders. They understood that they had an obligation to serve their soldiers and their soldiers’ families. They believed in the American values for which they had been fighting for the past three decades. They had faith that these values were worth sacrificing everything for — including, if necessary, their lives.

Having served with both officers for the past 20 years, I know that they personified all that is good and decent and honorable about the American military with genuineness of their humility, their uncompromising integrity, their willingness to sacrifice all for a worthy cause, and the pride they had in their soldiers.

Later that week, at the O.S.S. Society dinner, there were films and testimonials to the valor of the men and women who had fought in Europe and the Pacific during World War II. We also celebrated the 75th anniversary of D-Day, recognizing those brave Americans and allies who sacrificed so much to fight Nazism and fascism. We were reminded that the Greatest Generation went to war because it believed that we were the good guys — that wherever there was oppression, tyranny or despotism, America would be there. We would be there because freedom mattered. We would be there because the world needed us and if not us, then who?

Also that evening we recognized the incredible sacrifice of a new generation of Americans: an Army Special Forces warrant officer who had been wounded three times, the most recent injury costing him his left leg above the knee. He was still in uniform and still serving. There was an intelligence officer, who embodied the remarkable traits of those men and women who had served in the O.S.S. And a retired Marine general, whose 40 years of service demonstrated all that was honorable about the Corps and public service. 

But the most poignant recognition that evening was for a young female sailor who had been killed in Syria serving alongside our allies in the fight against ISIS. Her husband, a former Army Green Beret, accepted the award on her behalf. Like so many that came before her, she had answered the nation’s call and willingly put her life in harm’s way.

For everyone who ever served in uniform, or in the intelligence community, for those diplomats who voice the nation’s principles, for the first responders, for the tellers of truth and the millions of American citizens who were raised believing in American values — you would have seen your reflection in the faces of those we honored last week.

But, beneath the outward sense of hope and duty that I witnessed at these two events, there was an underlying current of frustration, humiliation, anger and fear that echoed across the sidelines. The America that they believed in was under attack, not from without, but from within. 

These men and women, of all political persuasions, have seen the assaults on our institutions: on the intelligence and law enforcement community, the State Department and the press. They have seen our leaders stand beside despots and strongmen, preferring their government narrative to our own. They have seen us abandon our allies and have heard the shouts of betrayal from the battlefield. As I stood on the parade field at Fort Bragg, one retired four-star general, grabbed my arm, shook me and shouted, “I don’t like the Democrats, but Trump is destroying the Republic!”

Those words echoed with me throughout the week. It is easy to destroy an organization if you have no appreciation for what makes that organization great. We are not the most powerful nation in the world because of our aircraft carriers, our economy, or our seat at the United Nations Security Council. We are the most powerful nation in the world because we try to be the good guys. We are the most powerful nation in the world because our ideals of universal freedom and equality have been backed up by our belief that we were champions of justice, the protectors of the less fortunate.

But, if we don’t care about our values, if we don’t care about duty and honor, if we don’t help the weak and stand up against oppression and injustice — what will happen to the Kurds, the Iraqis, the Afghans, the Syrians, the Rohingyas, the South Sudanese and the millions of people under the boot of tyranny or left abandoned by their failing states? 

If our promises are meaningless, how will our allies ever trust us? If we can’t have faith in our nation’s principles, why would the men and women of this nation join the military? And if they don’t join, who will protect us? If we are not the champions of the good and the right, then who will follow us? And if no one follows us — where will the world end up?

President Trump seems to believe that these qualities are unimportant or show weakness. He is wrong. These are the virtues that have sustained this nation for the past 243 years. If we hope to continue to lead the world and inspire a new generation of young men and women to our cause, then we must embrace these values now more than ever. 

And if this president doesn’t understand their importance, if this president doesn’t demonstrate the leadership that America needs, both domestically and abroad, then it is time for a new person in the Oval Office — Republican, Democrat or independent — the sooner, the better. The fate of our Republic depends upon it.

Erdogan Plays Trump/Pence/Pompeo For The Fools They Are

The letter above is the one that Donald Trump sent to President Erdogan of Turkey. Trump allowed Turkey to invade Syria to destroy the Kurds. But after substantial blowback from the American public (and legislators in Trump's own party), Trump tried to save face with that letter. He thought the letter made him look like a strong leader, and even passed out copies of it to legislators and the press. Personally, I think the letter just makes Trump look weak and stupid.

Trump then sent Pence and Pompeo to Turkey to "negotiate" a ceasefire. The results of that negotiation just confirmed that Trump is indeed weak and stupid (and so are Pence and Pompeo). All three of those U.S. politicians are bragging about the wonderful ceasefire they accomplished. But the truth is they accomplished nothing but to give Turkey everything it wanted.

Turkey gets to keep the 22 mile "safe zone" inside Syria. They also get to populate that safe zone with their Arab militia. The Kurds must get out of that safe zone (which is their homeland). No new sanctions will be levied against Turkey, and as Turkish troops leave the safe zone (which will be then patrolled by the Turkish-supported militia) the sanctions already levied will be removed.

As I said, Turkey got everything it wanted. The Kurds got nothing. Syria got nothing. And the United States got nothing, except to get played by another dictator. Trump will continue to brag about his great accomplishment. Lying is how he handles everything. But the world will know -- the U.S. leader is weak and stupid.