The Demographics Of The Drop In U.S. Leadership Rating

The Gallup Poll recently released a poll they took of about 1,000 respondents in 130 countries. They asked if the respondents had faith in the leadership abilities of the United States to solve the world's problems. The result showed that faith in U.S. leadership had dropped in nearly every country since the election of Donald Trump -- and now rests at a record low median of about 30%.

Now they have released a demographic breakdown of that drop in the faith of American leadership -- showing the drop by education level, urbanicity, income level, gender, and age. Note that there has been a significant drop in every group -- with the largest drop in those most educated, those in the highest income quintile, those living in urban areas, women, and those over 50 years old.

Most Nations Trust Putin More Than Trump To Do Right Thing

This is for those of you that think Donald Trump is doing a good job of representing the United States on the world stage. It is from a Pew Research Center global survey (and you can go here to see the methodology of that survey).

They asked the people in the countries listed above whether they would trust Trump or Putin more to do the right thing regarding world affairs. The huge majority of those nations said they would trust Putin more than Trump to do the right thing.

Trump is not just hurting this country -- he is making the world a much more dangerous place by destroying the reputation of the U.S. as a leader. The world is in serious trouble when the leader of Russia is trusted more than the leader of the United States.

Business Leaders Have Poor View Of Trump

Donald Trump has always bragged about his business acumen, and told voters he would apply that to the presidency. But CEO's and other business leaders aren't too impressed with Trump's first 130 days. Consider this from CNN Money:

A stunning 50% of the CEOs, business execs, government officials and academics surveyed at the annual Yale CEO Summit give Trump an "F" for his first 130 days in office. 

The survey, released earlier this week, found that another 21% give Trump's performance a "D" so far. Just 1% of the 125 leaders polled awarded the billionaire an "A."

The overarching message from CEOs is: "Stop the random 3 a.m. tweets and stop the needless brushfires diverting from the agenda," said Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, the Yale School of Management professor who led the summit. 

Sonnenfeld noted that 80% of those surveyed are CEOs, including Blackstone (BX) CEO Steve Schwarzman and IBM (IBM, Tech30) boss Ginni Rometty, who sit on Trump's advisory council and Merck (MRK) CEO Ken Frazier, a member of the president's manufacturing initiative. (Individual responses by each CEO were not released.) 

"This was not a granola-eating crowd of Democrat entrepreneurs. It's a cross-section of the business community, including some who are quite pro-Trump," he said. 

The Yale findings are the latest evidence that some pockets of the business community are growing disenchanted with Trump as his administration struggles to implement its economic agenda amid scandal and missteps.

Earlier this month, Trump's withdrawal from the Paris climate accord sparked an unprecedented revolt by CEOs. Business leaders led by Tesla (TSLA)founder Elon Musk, Disney CEO Bob Iger and JPMorgan Chase boss Jamie Dimon publicly bashed the decision. Goldman Sachs (GS)CEO Lloyd Blankfein even sent his first-ever tweet to slam the move as a "setback" for U.S. leadership in the world. 

CEOs surveyed by Yale agree with that sentiment. Two-thirds of respondents indicated that Trump's decision to pull out of the Paris climate accord diminished America's global standing. Another 86% expressed concern about Trump minimizing Russian security mischief. 

Business leaders are not impressed with Trump's budget either. Three-fourths of survey respondents said the administration's budget proposal is not sound.

The Public Still Has A Very Poor View Of Congress

These charts are made with information in a recent Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between December 3rd and 5th of a random national sample of 1,417 adults, with a margin of error of 3.2 points.

It shows that the public approval of Congress has not improved since the election. Only 14% of the public approves of the job Congress is doing -- and that disapproval crosses gender, age, and racial groups.

The question, of course, is what will the public think of the new Congress that convenes in January. That new Congress, like this one, will be controlled by the Republican Party. The second and third charts above show what the public thinks of both Republican and Democratic congresspeople. Note that the Democrats are viewed slightly more favorable than the Republicans -- and the Republicans are disapproved of slightly more than the Democrats.

Add to this the fact that the Republicans are currently planning to kill Obamacare, privatize Medicare, and cut Social Security benefits, and I think the Republicans are playing with fire. Millions will lose their health insurance when Obamacare is killed, and the public doesn't want Medicare and Social Security to be messed with (just properly funded).

I think it is likely that the new Congress will be viewed as unfavorably as the current Congress, and with a Republican also in the White House, the Republicans are going to have to accept the blame for anything that happens. They can no longer blame their obstruction and incompetence on the Democrats.

Obama Has Improved Other Countries View Of U.S. (But Trump Would Destroy That Improved Image)

George W. Bush seriously hurt the image of the United States with other countries (including our best allies). But thankfully, President Barack Obama restored our image among other nations. And currently, the United States enjoys a very favorable view with other nations (see charts above).

But as the charts below illustrate, our country is playing with fire in the 2016 election -- thanks to the Republican Party. That's because they nominated Donald Trump -- a man that other countries have no confidence in. Electing Trump would instantly destroy the image of this country.

Fortunately, there is a candidate that other nations trust, and have confidence in -- Hillary Clinton. Electing Clinton would maintain our image in the world.

These charts are from the Pew Research Center. They queried at least 1,000 people in each of several countries in April and May, and the margin of error for each country is about 4 points.

Most Republicans Embarrassed By Their Party's Campaign

This chart was made from a new CBS News / New York Times Poll. They questioned 388 likely Democratic voters and 362 likely Republican voters between March 17th and 20th, and the survey has a margin of error of about 6 points.

The poll shows that many Republicans are not happy with how their party's presidential campaign is going. Perhaps, most telling of all is the fact that 60% of Republicans say they are embarrassed by their party's campaign (while only 13% of Democrats say that about their own party's campaign).

And that's not the only troubling number for Republicans. About 88% say their party is divided (while only 33% of Dems say that), only 51% have a favorable opinion of their party (while 82% of Dems like their party), only 51% of Republicans have a favorable view of their frontrunner (while Dems have a 61% favorability), and 58% of Republicans say their party's presidential campaign has been more negative than in the past (while only 9% of Dems say that about their party's campaign).

What do these numbers tell us. I believe it signals that while the Democrats seem ready to unify for the November election, the Republicans are not. They are going to have a lot of trouble unifying behind either Trump or Cruz.

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Jonah Goldberg: “Nominating Donald Trump will wreck the Republican Party as we know it. Not nominating Trump will wreck the Republican Party as we know it. The sooner everyone recognizes this fact, the better.”

Clinton/Sanders Supporters Also Like The Other Candidate

The YouGov Poll shows that Democrats have a favorable opinion of both of their leading candidates -- 78% have a favorable opinion of Hillary Clinton and 63% have a favorable opinion of Bernie Sanders. But even more important is that the supporters of each also have a very favorable opinion of the other candidate.

About 60% of Clinton supporters also have a favorable opinion of Sanders. And about 71% of Sanders supporters also have a favorable opinion of Clinton.

Among the general public, about 41% have a favorable opinion of both Clinton and Sanders. That might not sound like much, but only one Republican could get up to 41% -- Ben Carson. All of the others had a smaller favorable rating.

The YouGov Poll was done between November 5th and 9th of a random national sample of 2,000 adults (including 751 Democrats).

Many Of The Rich Are Meaner Than Other Americans

Most polls don't really question the really rich, or if they do, they don't contain enough of them to get a valid result. The Russell Sage Foundation decided to fix that. They did a poll of what they called the "elites" -- those very near or in the top 1% of Americans, who made a minimum of $1,000,000 a year. The Foundation then compared those results to the results of other polls showing what most Americans think.

And it turns out that most of the rich think very differently than the majority of other Americans. For instance, only 40% of the rich want the minimum wage to be raised, while 78% of other Americans want that. And 33% of them wants cuts in Social Security, while only 10% of other Americans want to see that. About 17% think taxes on the rich should be slightly higher, while 52% of others want that to make income and wealth distribution more fair. About 58% of the rich want to see substantial cuts in Medicare, education, and transportation, while only 27% of other Americans want that.

And it goes on and on. The rich think differently, and many of them have a more mean-spirited attitude toward their fellow Americans. Just look at the chart for some of the other opinions, with rather shocking differences from most Americans.

It's easy to see why the rich, and especially the ultra-rich, are donating so much money to right-wing candidates -- candidates that agree with policies the rich want to see. The rich know they can't outvote other Americans, so they try to buy the politicians they want (and hopefully for them, the election). And sadly, the Citizens United Supreme Court decision is letting them do that.

Americans Still Say No To Repealing Obamacare

As much fuss as the Republicans are raising over Ebola right now, one might think they would consider it a good thing that millions more people now are covered with health insurance -- thanks to the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). But that would make sense, and making sense is not something important to Republicans (many of whom would happily shoot themselves in the foot to get our president out of the White House -- simply because he is African-American). About 39% of the public (Republicans and Republican-leaners) still want to repeal Obamacare -- effectively taking health insurance away from millions of Americans.

Fortunately, these people are a minority -- and that minority is not growing. A full 55% of the population wants to keep Obamacare in place (while 6% either don't know or don't care). About 40% think it should be kept and improved, while 15% want to keep it as it is. I'm in that 40% that doesn't want it repealed (because going back to the way it was before is sheer insanity), but I would like to see it improved a lot (all the way to a single-payer, government-run system that covers everyone).

The chart above was made from a recent Rasmussen Poll -- conducted on October 17th and 18th of a random national sample of 1,000 likely voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

Public's View On Labels "Progressive" & "Conservative"

Many conservatives in this country consider the term "progressive" a dirty word, and likewise, many progressives think the same of the term "conservative". This brings up the question of what the general public in the United States thinks. Do they consider these terms to be either positive or negative? What about the term "moderate"?

The folks at the Rasmussen Poll decided to find out. They surveyed 1,000 likely voters on October 13th and 14th, and their survey had a margin of error of 3 points. They asked the respondents if the considered the terms "progressive", "conservative", and "moderate" to be positive or negative (or neither). I have to admit that I was pleasantly surprised at the poll's results.

We have been told over and over in the last few years by the Republicans, and their cohorts in the media, that this is a conservative country -- and that most in the public look down on progressives (liberals). But that is not what this survey found. It turns out that 31% consider "conservative" to be a positive label (while 25% consider it to be negative) -- and 30% consider "progressive" to be positive (while 28% say it is negative). Those numbers are within the poll's margin of error -- which means the public consider those terms to be equally positive and negative.

This is good news for progressives. I seriously doubt these numbers would have been equal 10 years ago. I believe this shows that many in this country are turning away from the right-wing -- and if they are not moving to the left, they are at least moving back to the middle.

The Declining Trust In The Branches Of U.S. Government

This chart is from the Gallup Poll, and it shows the percentage of the American public that has a "great deal" or a "fair amount" of trust in each of the three branches of government (in September of each year since 2001). The latest survey was done between September 4th and 7th of this year of a random national sample of 1,017 adults, with a margin of error of 4 points.

The trust in the judicial branch has fallen by about 13 points since 2001, but still has the trust of a significant majority of 61% of the public. But the dramatic changes in the legislative and executive branches make the judicial line look almost flat. Trust in the executive branch was as high as 72% back in 2002, but dropped 30 points to 42% by 2008. The election of President Obama raised it to 61%, but it has now dropped to 43%.

But even the executive branch numbers look good when compared to those of the legislative branch. That branch started with 67% trust in 2002 and has been on a steady decline since then. It now rests at a pitiful 28% -- a drop of 39 points. This is just one more indication of the public's anger with Congress -- an anger they could well take out on incumbents in November (and most of those incumbents are Republicans).

What The American Public Thinks About Hillary Clinton

It's pretty obvious that if Hillary Clinton wants to run for president the Democrats are ready to give her that opportunity -- with poll after poll showing she is the overwhelming choice of Democrats across the nation. This brings up the question -- what does the general public think of Hillary?

The Pew Research Center tried to answer that question with a new survey (taken of 1,002 nationwide adults between February 27th and March 2nd -- with a 3.2 point margin of error).

The numbers didn't turn out to bad. In fact, I think most politicians would be happy to have equally good numbers. Most people find her likable, with only 36% saying she is hard to like. In addition, 49% say she is tough and has new ideas. But perhaps most important, 56% say she is honest. As expected, the worst numbers are from Republicans, but even among them about 55% view her as tough.

It is also interesting that fewer people think her gender will be an obstacle for her. Back in 2008, 35% thought being a woman would hurt Clinton, while 60% said it would not. But now only 20% say her gender will hurt her, while 77% say it won't. It looks like the idea of a woman being president has grown on people in the last six years.

The most amusing part of the survey (at least for me) was when the respondents were asked if they knew how old Hillary Clinton is currently. While a majority were able to at least put her age in the right decade, a surprising 40% could not do that. About 6% thought she was under 50, while 31% said she was between 50 and 59. About 3% said she was 70 or older.

The group that really had little clue as to her age was the younger people (18 to 29). About 16% said she was under 50, and 53% said she was between 50 and 59. Older people were the best at knowing her age, with 71% of 50 to 64 year-olds and 70% of those 65 or older putting her age as between 60 and 69.

Also amusing was the fact that more Republicans knew Hillary's age than Democrats. While 67% of Republicans got it right, only 60% of Democrats did.

For those of you who don't know -- Hillary Clinton was born on October 26,1947 and  is currently 66 years-old.

Obamacare Opinions Remain Steady In 2013

The Republicans were sure that they had an issue in Obamacare that they could ride to a victory in 2014. Unfortunately, it isn't working out for them. The public didn't like their shutting down the government in an effort to defund Obamacare. And despite all the negative statements and outright lies the GOP has made regarding Obamacare, they just can't get a majority of Americans to agree with them.

The charts above were made from information in the latest Kaiser Foundation Survey, which is done several times a year to determine what the public thinks about medical issues. This new survey was done between October 17th and 23rd of 1,513 nationwide adults (with a 3 point margin of error). Note (in the top chart) that regardless of all the publicity about the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), both negative and positive, the public opinion of the health care reform has remained steady throughout this year.

Back in February of this year, Obamacare had a 36% approval and a 42% disapproval. The latest figures from October are 38% approval and 44% approval (both figures within the margin of error and reflective of public opinion throughout the year). But while a plurality doesn't approve of Obamacare, the Republicans haven't been able to turn that plurality into a majority -- or even make any headway toward that goal.

And when it comes to drumming up support for their efforts to repeal (or defund) Obamacare, the congressional Republicans are even more out of touch with public opinion. Their teabagger base may approve of that, but the general public doesn't (and never has). In fact, support for keeping Obamacare is 10 points higher than support for repealing it (47% to 37%), and 22% would actually like to see Obamacare expanded.

The Republicans haven't given up on Obamacare as an issue yet, but they probably should. They have done everything they can to kill it and try to turn the public against it, and they have failed.

He Did The Right Thing

 This comes as no surprise to most of us. Ever since announcing the successful Navy Seal raid in Pakistan that got Osama bin Laden, several polls have shown a spike in approval for the president -- among them the Quinnipiac University poll (up from 46% to 52%) and a Gallup Poll (which also showed a rise from 46% to 52%). Other polls have shown similar results.

This has some on the right upset -- like to talking heads at Fox News (who are about to crap all over themselves). They are accusing the president of using Osama's death to score political points, and some are even accusing him of faking the death for political purposes. Of course, both accusations are ridiculous.

Does Osama's death insure Obama's re-election? Of course not. We are too far from election day -- and plenty could happen between now and then. It won't hurt, but it would have been much more helpful politically if it had happened next year.

And there are some politicians (in both parties) who would have waited in the hopes of scoring an electoral coup (even though Osama could have escaped in the meantime). But the president didn't do that. Instead of the best political action, he chose to do the right thing. And that makes me feel better about my vote for him in 2008.

He kept his promise to get Osama as soon as possible. Now I wish he could keep the rest of his campaign promises (stop the wars, close Guantanamo, support unions, etc.).

Arab World Hates Us (What A Surprise!)

The administrations of Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton reached out to the Arab world and began to make friends there. For the first time, Arabs started to feel like they might be treated fairly by America. Even Bush's short war to kick Iraq out of Kuwait didn't seem to damage this, since most Arabs didn't feel Iraq should have invaded Kuwait.

But it looks like the current Bush administration has destroyed most of the good will the three previous administrations had created. According to a new poll done by the University of Maryland and Zogby International, 8 out of 10 Arabs now have a negative view of the United States.

Most Arabs don't approve of our actions in Iraq either. While George Bush (and John McCain) are trumpeting the wonderful success of Bush's troop surge in Iraq, the Arab world doesn't agree. Only 6% of Arabs believe the surge has improved conditions in Iraq.

In fact, a solid majority of Arabs believe if the United States would just withdraw their troops from Iraq, the Iraqis would be able to settle their differences. They see the U.S. as an impediment to peace in Iraq.

But if the Arabs hate us, who do they like? According to the poll, the three leaders most respected by Arabs are Hassan Nasrallah (Hezbollah), President Bashar al-Assad (Syria) and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (Iran). Why? Because these leaders are perceived by Arabs to be the only leaders standing up to oppose America.

Perhaps even more troubling is the Arab view of Iran. Bush believes Iran to be the biggest threat to peace in the region. But while the Iranians are not Arabs, the Arabs don't view them as a threat. In fact, a majority of Arabs think it would be a positive thing for Iran to develop a nuclear bomb.

Bush claims he invaded Iraq to bring democracy to the Arab world. Whether he's telling the truth or not, it hasn't worked out that way. All he has done is turn the Arab world against us. A few of Arabia's dictatorial leaders may still like us (like the Saudi King), but the vast majority of Arabs now hate us.