Thursday, February 02, 2012
Is GOP Enthusiasm Dying Down ?
In the last couple of months, there have been some polls showing enthusiasm among Democrats has risen, and now rivals that of the Republicans. That is very good news for Democrats, but there may be something that is even better news than that -- that Republican enthusiasm about the upcoming elections in November may be waning. If that happens, the 2012 election could look a lot more like the 2008 election than the 2010 election (and that would mean a huge victory for Democrats).
This idea started to take shape after the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary. In both of those contests the turnout was about the same as it had been in 2008. The third state to vote was South Carolina, and the turnout there did increase over the 2008 primary. But that was a state with a huge teabagger/evangelical vote, and they turned out for Newt Gingrich, the anti-Romney candidate.
It is still up in the air whether they will repeat that kind of enthusiastic turnout if Romney wins the nomination (and the Gallup Poll has Romney back in the lead nationally, 31% to 26%). Knowing their deep distaste for Romney, I seriously doubt it. Many of those teabagger/evangelicals would then see the race as being between a Chicago liberal and a Massachusetts liberal.
Then we get to the Florida primary. The chart above was made from the results of that primary. The black dots represent Florida counties. The further to the right side of the chart, the higher the vote total was for Gingrich (and vice versa). Not that the only counties that had a turnout exceeding that of 2008 were the Gingrich counties, which were mostly northern rural counties. The high-population urban counties all voted for Romney and are in the lower left side of the chart. Their turnout was significantly lower than in 2008.
In fact, the total turnout for the Florida primary was significantly lower this year than it was in 2008 -- about 14% lower. Romney may have won in Florida, but he clearly did not inspire any enthusiasm in Florida Republicans. If he goes on to win the nomination, I think we can safely say the Gingrich (and Paul and Santorum) voters will be even less enthused than Romney's voters already are.
And Romney's big-spending negative campaign is not going to help win over those teabagger/evangelicals. They already don't like or trust Romney, and they'll have a hard time forgetting his treatment of their preferred candidates. If Romney gets the nomination, some of them will vote third-party and others will just stay home on election day. The only question is how many, and how badly will Republicans be hurt.
Public Supports President's Proposals
The folks that do the Gallup Poll decided to find out just what the public thought about the president's proposals. They found out that the president is in touch with what the people want. Even rank-and-file Republicans like most of the proposals (except for raising taxes on the rich). Here is a list of the proposals, with the accompanying percentages being the portion who approve of the proposal:
GIVE TAX BREAKS TO CORPORATIONS THAT BRING JOBS BACK TO THE U.S. FROM OVERSEAS.
General public...............82%
Democrats...............80%
Independents...............79%
Republicans...............89%
PRESSURE CHINA TO ALLOW FAIRER TRADE BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CHINA.
General public...............69%
Democrats...............77%
Independents...............64%
Republicans...............71%
INCREASE FEDERAL SPENDING FOR EDUCATION AND JOB TRAINING FOR THE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED.
General public...............75%
Democrats...............93%
Independents...............77%
Republicans...............54%
INCREASE FEDERAL SPENDING TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES.
General public...............64%
Democrats...............84%
Independents...............66%
Republicans...............46%
INCREASE FEDERAL INCOME TAXES ON UPPER-INCOME AMERICANS.
General public...............63%
Democrats...............81%
Independents...............64%
Republicans...............41%
The public likes the president's plans, and he needs to push hard to get them all brought up for a vote -- repeatedly if necessary. They will either get passed (which would be a good thing) or the Republicans will have to explain to the voters (with an election coming up) why they killed these proposals. This puts the Republicans between a rock and a hard place. They either agree with the president (which will infuriate their teabagger base) or hurt themselves with or hurt themselves with the majority of voters in the next election.
The coming election is looking better and better for Democrats.
An Update From Bernie
I want to take this opportunity to update you about what’s going on in Washington, and share my thoughts about the short and long-term challenges we face as a nation.
In the coming weeks I will step up my efforts to generate strong grassroots support for a constitutional amendment I have introduced to overturn the disastrous Citizens United Supreme Court decision of two years ago. It seems to me that there are about five people in this country who believe that a corporation is a person. Unfortunately, they are all on the Supreme Court. The result of this misguided 5-4 decision, one of the worst ever handed down by a Supreme Court, is that corporations can now spend, without disclosure, unlimited sums of money on political advertising. And we are seeing the results of that ruling right now with big money interests and Super PACs spending huge sums on television and radio advertising in the Republican primaries and in Senate races. Unless we change it, that situation will only get worse in future years.
The good news is that throughout the country grassroots activists are working hard to reclaim our democracy and defeat Citizens United. Resolutions in support of a constitutional amendment have already been passed in cities and towns all over the country including New York, Los Angeles, Boulder, Pueblo, Duluth, Oakland (CA), Albany (NY), Portland (OR), and Burlington (VT). In Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Oregon, Vermont and Washington state legislators have introduced similar type resolutions.
Please get involved in this issue. Play a role in demanding that your local government and state legislature take a stand in demanding that Congress pass a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United. To a significant degree, this is not a partisan issue. Most Americans, regardless of their political ideology, do not believe that a handful of wealthy and powerful special interests should be able to dominate our political process and elect -- or defeat -- the candidates of their choice.
Another issue that I am currently working on is postal reform legislation. While this is not a very sexy issue, it is extremely important not only for the 600,000 employees of the U.S. Postal Service, but for our entire economy.
As a result of a very onerous and unfair requirement that they pay $5.5 billion a year into a health benefit account for future retirees, as well as a significant decline in first class mail because of increased e-mail use, the Postal Service faces serious financial challenges. Their response has been to develop a draconian proposal which would eliminate up to 200,000 jobs by shutting down over 3,000 small post offices, half (252) of their mail processing plants and end Saturday and next-day mail delivery. This plan would result in a significant decline in the speed of mail delivery service and, in my view, the beginning of a “death spiral” for that vitally important agency. With a diminishment in the quality and timeliness of the services the Postal Service provides, fewer and fewer businesses and consumers will be interested in using the mail. The result will be that postal deficits will grow larger, more cuts will continue to be made, and eventually the Post Office will be a pale shadow of what it is today.
During the next several weeks I, and a number of my colleagues, will be working to improve the existing postal reform legislation which is due to come to the floor of the Senate very shortly. Our goal will be to save jobs in the Postal Service and maintain a high quality of service. We will also be demanding that the Postal Service create a new and aggressive business model so that it can effectively compete in today’s market and increase their revenue in the digital age in which we live.
Lastly, I want to alert you to an ongoing issue I have been involved with during all of my five years in the Senate. Sadly, virtually every Republican in Congress and too many Democrats are determined to cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid in the name of deficit reduction. This is wrong! We must not allow them to do that.
At a time when we have the most unequal distribution of wealth and income of any major country on earth, and when working people are suffering through the worst recession since the Great Depression, we must not make savage cuts to programs which maintain the wellbeing and dignity of tens of millions of struggling Americans. With 45,000 Americans dying each year because they don’t get to a doctor when they should, and when 50 million Americans already lack health insurance, how could anybody be calling for cuts in Medicare or Medicaid? The truth is that we should be moving toward a universal, single-payer health care system, not decimating the limited public health programs we now have in place.
In terms of Social Security, please remember that Social Security today has a $2.5 trillion surplus, can pay out all benefits owed to every eligible American for the next 25 years and, because it is funded independently by the payroll tax, has not added one penny to our national deficit or debt. Social Security must not be cut!
Yes, we need to address the deficit crisis, but there are fair and responsible ways to do that. While the rich get richer, their effective tax rate is the lowest in decades. The top 1 percent must be asked to pay their fair share of taxes. While corporations are making record-breaking profits, many of them enjoy outrageous tax-loopholes which enable them to pay little or nothing in taxes. We must end corporate tax loopholes. The United States now spends three times as much on the military as we did in 1997, and more than the rest of the world combined. We must cut wasteful military spending.
Let me conclude by thanking you for your activism in the fight for progressive values and for a government which represents all the people, and not just the wealthy and powerful. These are tough times for our country. We must continue to push forward. This struggle is not just about you or me or our generation. It is about the future of the country and our children and grandchildren.
Thanks again for all that you are doing.
Best Wishes,
Senator Bernie Sanders
Wednesday, February 01, 2012
Tough Primary Or Party Suicide ?
But this year the Republicans have turned that bare-knuckles fight into a gutter-fight with knives and other weapons, and some are now wondering whether the eventual winner (and possibly even the party itself) might be mortally-wounded when it is all over. Americans are used to negative campaigning, but the Republicans seem to have kicked that negativity up a few notches this year.
Just listen to the words of Ken Goldstein, president of Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), who says, "I spent much of my academic career telling reporters, 'Relax, this is not the most negative campaign ever.' Well, this IS the most negative campaign ever." And he has the facts to back up that statement. Consider the following facts gathered from just the Florida campaign:
* $19.9 million dollars were spent on ads in Florida -- $15.9 million for Romney and $4 million for Gingrich. In 2008, John McCain spent only $11 million in his entire 50-state primary campaign.
* A total of 11,586 TV spots were aired in Florida between January 23rd and 29th, with 10,633 (91.8%) of those being negative and 953 (8.2%) being positive.
* The Romney campaign ran 3,276 ads and 99% of them were negative. The Gingrich campaign ran 1,012 ads and 95% of them were negative.
* The Romney super-PAC ran 4,969 ads and 100% of them were negative. The Gingrich super-PAC ran 1,893 ads and 53% of them were negative.
* The Florida ads broke down this way -- 68% were anti-Gingrich, 23% were anti-Romney, 9% were pro-Gingrich, and less than 0.1% were pro-Romney.
To me, that sounds like the very definition of a negative campaign. And it's already having an effect beyond the borders of Florida. While the negative ads were run within the state, they were reported by the media all across the country. And it seems to be having a negative effect on the Republican Party -- even among the GOP faithful. A new survey by the prestigious Pew Research Center shows that now a majority of Republicans believe their field of presidential hopefuls is only fair/poor. This is the first time in that survey that more than 50% have believed that.
As late as December of 2011, only 44% of Republicans thought their presidential field was only fair/poor, while 51% believed the field was good/excellent. Those numbers have now flipped. Now 52% of Republicans believe their field of candidates are fair/poor, while only 46% believe that field in good/excellent. Republicans seem to be losing faith in their presidential candidates, and that is not good for their hopes of winning in November. At this point in 2008, about 68% of Republicans rated their field of candidates as good/excellent.
The fact is that there is now a significant split in the Republican Party -- a split between the teabagger/evangelical/ultra-right-wingers and the establishment/moderate-conservatives. And the two groups don't like each other at all. The race between Romney and Gingrich is more than just a contest between those two men. It is a proxy fight for control of the party going into the future -- and it is a dirty no-holds-barred proxy fight.
Can these two disparate elements in the Republican Party kiss and make up after the primaries are over? They will try, but whether that effort will be successful is getting more doubtful every day -- especially if Romney wins (which most people expect). It wouldn't take too many Republicans to go over to a third party or just stay at home on election day, to have a disastrous effect for Republicans down-ballot on election day.
And worse yet for Republicans is that there is no reason to believe these party divisions won't be just as bad two or four years from now. What we are now witnessing may be more than just a very negative campaign. We could be watching the slow suicide of a once-respected (remember Abe Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt) political party.
Wall Street Candidate Wins Florida
Does this mean that the teabagger/evangelicals have jumped on the Romney bandwagon? Not at all. The most conservative areas of Florida voted for Gingrich, and exit polls showed that 41% of those who voted don't think Romney is conservative enough (while another 40% would like to see a new candidate enter the race). These people still don't trust Romney and don't want to support him.
The truth is that Romney spent a fortune in Wall Street money to win in Florida -- about $15.9 million. The Gingrich camp was only able to spend about $4 million. That means Romney outspent Gingrich by $12 million dollars. That's huge, especially considering that in 2008 John McCain spent only $11 million in all 50 states in his primary campaign. It looks like Romney has decided if he can't win the hearts of Republicans, maybe he can at least buy their support.
Romney's continuing failure to make inroads with the teabagger/evangelical base of the Republican Party could spell trouble for him down the line. On Super Tuesday, a lot of Southern States will be voting, and they are a lot closer to the South Carolina Republicans than the Florida Republicans. If Gingrich can avoid cratering before March, he could pick up a lot of delegates on Super Tuesday.
Romney may have the momentum again, but he does not yet have the nomination. Next up is a few caucus states. Ron Paul has proven in the past to be able to turn out large numbers of his supporters in caucuses, and if he does that again in the next couple of weeks, he could really help Gingrich by keeping Romney's delegate numbers down.
Here are the Florida results:
Mitt Romney...............771,842 (46.39%)
Newt Gingrich...............531,294 (31.94%)
Rick Santorum...............222,248 (13.36%)
Ron Paul...............116,776 (7.02%)
Rick Perry...............6,742 (0.41%)
Jon Huntsman...............6,182 (0.37%)
Michele Bachmann...............3,947 (0.24%)
Herman Cain...............3,481 (0.21%)
Gary Johnson...............1,186 (0.07%)
TOTAL VOTES...............1,663,698
Here is the current delegate total according to msnbc.com:
Mitt Romney...............70
Newt Gingrich...............23
Rick Santorum...............11
Ron Paul...............6
Senate Dems Ready To Tax The Rich
Most Americans have been shocked to learn in the past couple of years just how small a tax rate is paid by the richest people in this country. The issue recently received a new impetus with the release of Republican presidential front-runner Mitt Romney's tax return from 2010. Although he made over $20 million for not working at all, Romney paid only a 13.9% tax rate on those millions -- a smaller rate than many in the middle class must pay (even though they had to work hard for their much, much smaller income).
Poll after poll has shown that a clear majority of Americans want to see the rich pay more in taxes. The percentage of those who would like to see this varies from 60% to near 80%, depending on how much more tax is proposed -- and even a small majority of Republicans would like to see the rich pay a little bit more. Finally, it look like the Democrats are starting to wake up and realize that the GOP is in a losing position on the this issue.
In his State-of-the-Union speech, President Obama said the tax laws should be fixed so those who make a million dollars a year or more should be taxed at a minimum rate of 30%. After polls showed that most Americans, Senate Democrats seem to be discovering that they also have a backbone -- and that maybe it's time to use this newly-discovered body part.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada) has announced that he will be scheduling a vote on the president's plan to raise taxes on the rich to a minimum of 30%. But he doesn't stop there. Reid says he will be scheduling votes on raising taxes on the rich all thru the spring and summer months in the Senate.
With the present make-up of Congress -- the Republicans controlling the House and usually having enough votes to sustain a filibuster in the Senate -- it is doubtful that any of the Democratic efforts to raise taxes on the rich can get through Congress. After all, the Republicans want to cut taxes for the rich even more -- not raise them by even a penny.
But it's still good politics for the Democrats to continually bring this issue up for a vote. They should make the Republicans vote against it time after time -- and then let the Republicans try to explain those ridiculous votes to the unhappy voters. Considering the minuscule tax rates already being paid by rich individuals and corporations (the ones that pay any taxes at all), I think the Republicans are going to have a hard time explaining those votes.
Personally, I think the Democrats should go even further. I think they should demand that all income, regardless of how it is received, should be taxed at the same rate as income that people had to work hard for (earned income). It has never made any sense that those who gamble on the stock market to make their money should pay a lower rate that Americans who have to work for their income. The very thought of that denigrates the idea of honest labor being the way to get ahead in America.
Democrats Hold Oregon House Seat
The seat was won by Suzanne Bonamici rather easily. She received more than 50% of the vote, and it is expected she will be sworn in in Washington in the next week. Most observers believe she will be running for re-election this November for her first full term.
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