Wednesday, January 02, 2019
Three Interesting Charts On Guns In The United States
These charts are from the Pew Research Center. They relate some interesting facts about guns in the United States.
The top chart is the most troubling. It shows that the number of gun deaths is increasing in the United States -- from 28,700 in 2000 to about 39,800 in 2017. And it's not because the population is increasing. The rate of gun deaths per 100,000 people has increased from 10.2 in 2000 to about 12.0 in 2017. We have a gun problem in this country, and that problem is growing.
The second chart is the most hopeful. It shows that 57% of Americans believe gun laws should be more restrictive in this country. Unfortunately, too many in Congress (especially Republicans) choose to ignore the wishes of the American public (so they can continue getting money from the NRA and gun manufacturers). They claim to be protectors of the Second Amendment, but that is just an excuse for inaction. There are several things that could be done without violating the Second Amendment.
The third chart shows how out of proportion our gun laws are. Only 30% of Americans own a gun, even though there are enough guns in circulation for every citizen to have one. Many in that 30% own more than one gun. Another 11% live with one of those 30% who own a gun. About 57% of American households do not have a gun.
Is It Too Early To Declare For 2020 Race? - Not Really
On the last day of 2018, Senator Elizabeth Warren let us know she is running for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination -- joining two others who had made it clear earlier that they would be running (Rep. Delaney and former HUD Secretary Castro).
One could be forgiven for thinking this is too early for the 2020 race to begin. After all, we are less than two months past the 2018 election. But is it really too early? The answer is NO. This is not the first time candidates have jumped in very early. Sarah Mervosh and Matt Flegenheimer looked at previous presidential races, and they report the following in The New York Times:
2016: Rumblings began in mid-December 2014
By this time four years ago, former Gov. Jeb Bush, Republican of Florida, had made an early move in the 2016 presidential race. In mid-December 2014, he said he would “actively explore” a presidential run, announced plans to create a political action committee and spent time calling donors. (Mr. Bush, of course, did not win in the end.)
But it was Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, the eventual runner-up to Mr. Trump in the Republican primary, who was the first major candidate to formally announce a presidential bid, in March 2015. The future Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, declared “I’m running for president” soon after, in April 2015.
In the end, all of them lost to Mr. Trump, who did not announce his candidacy from the atrium of Trump Tower in Manhattan until June 2015.
2012: Candidates waited until springtime 2011
The 2012 election got off to a slow start, although it was widely expected that Mitt Romney, who had run in 2008, would again seek the Republican nomination. But few of the Republicans lining up to run against President Barack Obama were willing to formally claim an early stake in the race.
Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota became the first major Republican to enter the race, announcing an exploratory committee in March 2011. But he would not win the party nomination.
Mr. Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, announced his own exploratory committee in April 2011 and would eventually emerge as the Republican standard-bearer against Mr. Obama, who won re-election.
2008: And you thought this year was fast?
If you think there wasn’t enough room between the midterm election and the start of presidential campaigns this year, look no further than the 2008 election cycle.
For the first time in more than half a century, the presidential race did not include an incumbent — either the president or the vice president — on the ballot. And the campaigning started so early that it bumped up against the midterms.
Tom Vilsack, a Democrat who was the governor of Iowa, announced his intention to run for president the week of the 2006 midterms and made it official by the end of November. John McCain, the senator from Arizona who would go on to capture the Republican nomination, formed his presidential exploratory committee that same month.
By January 2007, when Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton launched their exploratory committees, the field was already crowded with candidates. It was a breathtakingly fast start to a presidential race that would propel Mr. Obama to the White House.
2004: The nominee went early
Going into the 2004 election, George W. Bush was the incumbent president, but that did not dissuade prospective Democrats from campaigning.
John Kerry, the senator from Massachusetts, established himself as an early contender: In early December 2002, he went on NBC’s “Meet the Press” to declare that he was creating an exploratory committee. By January, a flood of other candidates had entered the race.
Initially, Mr. Kerry’s early move paid off: He bested the other Democratic candidates to become the party’s nominee for president. But he, too, lost to the incumbent president as Mr. Bush secured a second term.
2000: Started early, ended late
The unforgettable 2000 presidential race that ended with a recount in Florida began with the long-shot candidacy of a liberal senator from Minnesota.
The senator, Paul Wellstone, announced an exploratory committee as early as April 1998, more than two years before the election. In a solicitation letter to Democrats during his short-lived campaign, he wrote, “Nov. 7, 2000, probably seems a long time away to you. (It does to me!)”
Al Gore, then the vice president of the United States, was the favorite for the Democratic nomination and announced his first formal step toward running for president on Jan. 1, 1999. The future President Bush announced his exploratory committee two months later, in March 1999.
But there was another notable candidate that election cycle: Donald J. Trump. Encouraged by “amazing” polls, “unbelievable” news media interest and a “huge” ground swell of public support, he announced an exploratory committee to run for president in October 1999. He suggested that Oprah Winfrey would be his vice president.
That campaign didn’t take off. But we know how this story goes. Mr. Trump made it to the White House, where he has uprooted American politics — and opened the door to the wide field of candidates who will fight to challenge him in 2020. It starts now.
Tuesday, January 01, 2019
HAPPY NEW YEAR
I wish all my readers a happy, healthy, and wealthy New Year. May it be the best year you've ever had.
Warren Tosses Her Hat In The Ring For 2020
The race for the 2020 presidential nomination of the Democratic Party has begun. There haven't been any "official" declarations, but three candidates have now made it clear they are running. The first two were Rep. John Delaney of Maryland and former HUD Secretary Julian Castro of Texas. Those two candidates didn't make waves, because (at least for now) most people don't consider them to have much of a chance.
But now the first heavyweight has tossed a hat in the ring. It is Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who announced she had formed an exploratory committee (which would allow her to start raising funds). She is a candidate that most people believe actually has a decent chance of winning the nomination.
I think we can expect more people declaring now. Others who want to run will not want Warren to line up too many voters and donors before they start fighting for their share.
You may think it's too early to be thinking about 2020. After all, it's a little more than a year before the first primaries/caucuses begin. But with a field of candidates that's expected to be large, a candidate needs all the time they can get to make themselves known to voters and to line up as many donors as possible.
The race has begun!
2018 Was A Year Of "Unprecedented Deception" For Trump
For Donald Trump, 2018 was a year of unprecedented lying -- breaking even his own record set in 2017. Here is part of what Glenn Kessler had to say about it in The Washington Post:
President Trump’s year of lies, false statements and misleading claims started with some morning tweets.
Over a couple of hours on Jan. 2, Trump made false claims about three of his favorite targets — Iran, the New York Times and Hillary Clinton. He also took credit for the “best and safest year on record” for commercial aviation, even though there had been no commercial plane crashes in the United States since 2009 and, in any case, the president has little to do with ensuring the safety of commercial aviation.
The fusillade of tweets was the start of a year of unprecedented deception during which Trump became increasingly unmoored from the truth. When 2018 began, the president had made 1,989 false and misleading claims, according to The Fact Checker’s database, which tracks every suspect statement uttered by the president. By the end of the year, Trump had accumulated more than 7,600 untruths during his presidency — averaging more than 15 erroneous claims a day during 2018, almost triple the rate from the year before.
Even as Trump’s fact-free statements proliferate, there is growing evidence that his approach is failing.
Fewer than 3 in 10 Americans believe many of his most-common false statements, according to a Fact Checker poll conducted this month. Only among a pool of strong Trump approvers — about 1 in 6 adults in the survey — did large majorities accept several, though not all, of his falsehoods as true.
Similarly, a November Quinnipiac poll found 58 percent of voters saying Trump wasn’t honest, compared with just 36 percent who said he was honest. The same poll found 50 percent saying he is “less honest” than most previous presidents, tying his own record for the highest share of registered voters saying so in Quinnipiac polling. . . .
Trump began 2018 on a similar pace as last year. Through May, he generally averaged about 200 to 250 false claims a month. But his rate suddenly exploded in June, when he topped 500 falsehoods, as he appeared to shift to campaign mode. He uttered almost 500 more in both July and August, almost 600 in September, more than 1,200 in October and almost 900 in November. In December, Trump drifted back to the mid-200s. . . .
More than a quarter of Trump’s claims were made during campaign rallies. On Nov. 5, the day before the midterm elections, for instance, Trump held three rallies, yielding a total of 139 false or misleading claims. A review of every statement made by Trump at two of hisearlier 2018 rallies found that he exaggerated or made up at least 70 percent of his assertions.
Almost as many false claims came during remarks at press events, and about 17 percent were the result of his itchy Twitter finger.
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