Saturday, January 30, 2021
The Texas View Of The Pandemic In 8 Charts
The charts above are from the recent Texas Lyceum Poll -- done between January 8th and 17th of a statewide sample of 1,200 Texas adults, with a 2.83 point margin of error.
Another 847,000 Workers Filed For Unemployment Last Week
The Labor Department released its weekly statistics last Thursday. It showed that an additional 847,000 workers filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending on January 23rd. The Trump/Coronavirus recession continues.
Fortunately, we now have a new president. Hopefully, President Biden can get a handle on the pandemic and begin to control it. The economy won't recover until that happens.
Here is the official Labor Department statement:
In the week ending January 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 847,000, a decrease of 67,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 14,000 from 900,000 to 914,000. The 4-week moving average was 868,000, an increase of 16,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 3,750 from 848,000 to 851,750.
The Crazies Are Now Fully In Control Of The Republican Party
Sadly, that is no longer true. The right-wing crazies have taken over the party now -- the white supremacists, the religious bigots, and the conspiracy theory nuts. The GOP invited them in, because it wanted their votes and they thought they could control them. But they couldn't. The now control the party, and it is doubtful whether the party can right itself again, or even survive.
The following is from a New York Times column by Paul Krugman:
Here’s what we know about American politics: The Republican Party is stuck, probably irreversibly, in a doom loop of bizarro. If the Trump-incited Capitol insurrection didn’t snap the party back to sanity — and it didn’t — nothing will.
What isn’t clear yet is who, exactly, will end up facing doom. Will it be the G.O.P. as a significant political force? Or will it be America as we know it? Unfortunately, we don’t know the answer. It depends a lot on how successful Republicans will be in suppressing votes.
About the bizarro: Even I had some lingering hope that the Republican establishment might try to end Trumpism. But such hopes died this week.
On Tuesday Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, who has said that Donald Trump’s role in fomenting the insurrection was impeachable, voted for a measure that would have declared a Trump trial unconstitutional because he’s no longer in office. (Most constitutional scholars disagree.)
On Thursday Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader — who still hasn’t conceded that Joe Biden legitimately won the presidency, but did declare that Trump “bears responsibility” for the attack on Congress — visited Mar-a-Lago, presumably to make amends.
In other words, the G.O.P.’s national leadership, after briefly flirting with sense, has surrendered to the fantasies of the fringe. Cowardice rules. . . .
How did this happen to what was once the party of Dwight Eisenhower? Political scientists argue that traditional forces of moderation have been weakened by factors like the nationalization of politics and the rise of partisan media, notably Fox News.
This opens the door to a process of self-reinforcing extremism (something, by the way, that I’ve seen happen in a minor fashion within some academic subfields). As hard-liners gain power within a group, they drive out moderates; what remains of the group is even more extreme, which drives out even more moderates; and so on. A party starts out complaining that taxes are too high; after a while it begins claiming that climate change is a giant hoax; it ends up believing that all Democrats are Satanist pedophiles.
This process of radicalization began long before Donald Trump; it goes back at least to Newt Gingrich’s takeover of Congress in 1994. But Trump’s reign of corruption and lies, followed by his refusal to concede and his attempt to overturn the election results, brought it to a head. And the cowardice of the Republican establishment has sealed the deal. One of America’s two major political parties has parted ways with facts, logic and democracy, and it’s not coming back. . . .
The bottom line is that we don’t know whether we’ve earned more than a temporary reprieve. A president who tried to retain power despite losing an election has been foiled. But a party that buys into bizarre conspiracy theories and denies the legitimacy of its opposition isn’t getting saner, and still has a good chance of taking complete power in four years.
Friday, January 29, 2021
Public Is Willing To Give Biden A Chance To Fix Problems
The charts above reflect the results of a recent Monmouth University Poll -- done between January 21st and 24th of a national sample of 809 adults, with a 3.5 point margin of error.
Is Trump's Third Party Threat Real Or A Tool To Keep Power?
Is this threat real? Would he actually follow through on it?
A recent Morning Consult Poll showed that if he did, about 30% of current Republican Party members would follow him into the new party.
That has Republican leaders scared. They know that a third party headed by Trump, while unlikely to succeed, would be devastating for them in the 2022 and 2024 elections. Trump also knows this.
I doubt Trump would actually try to start a new party. It would be too much work (and he hates work). But just the threat of it is accomplishing his real goals -- to prevent being convicted in the impeachment trial, and to remain in control of the Republican Party for the next 2-4 years. He likes being thought of as a kingmaker.
Normally, presidents that lose after one term are not considered to be the party's leader. Gerald Ford and George H.W. Bush both lost the presidency after their first term, and neither could be considered their party's leader after their loss. The same can be said of Jimmy Carter for the Democrats (even though he has rehabilitated his image in recent years).
Trump wants to change that. He cannot stand being thought of as a loser (even though he is). He wants to remain the most powerful Republican. Sadly, it looks like current leaders in the Republican Party are going to let him do that.
Why? Because they are political cowards. It would be best for their party in the long run to get rid of Trump (who has done so much damage to their party), but they don't have the courage to do it. They are more interested in their own political survival.
They know Trump better than anyone. They know he is crazy and vindictive. They know he sees the world as friends (people loyal to him who obey him) and enemies (all others), and they don't want to be on his enemies list. They are afraid they will have a well-funded primary opponent, and maybe even have to run against a third party candidate if they survive that.
In the political life of an elected official, there comes a time when they have to choose doing what's better for the country (or their party) and doing what's best for themselves. Sadly, too many choose the latter -- and that is what most in today's Republican Party are doing. They have chosen political cowardice over political courage. It's shameless and hypocritical, but then those seem to be values in the current GOP.
Trump knows they are cowards, and that's why he's threatening to start a new party or make sure they have primary opponents. He knows their cowardice will cause them to bend their knee to him -- and that is all he wants.
Initial Job Approval For Each President Since World War II
The chart above shows the initial job approval numbers for each president since World War II. The numbers are from Fivethirtyeight.com. Note that Trump started lower than any other president, and never improved on those numbers. He's the only president to have never reached 50% approval at any time during his presidency. Bush II was the only president besides Trump to start with less than 50%, but his numbers improved drastically after the 9/11 tragedy.
Joe Biden starts with a 54% job approval -- about 9.9 points better than Trump.
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