Frankly I considered that to be a good thing. I think Palin would pose the weakest candidate the Republicans could offer in 2012 (unless the crazy-woman from Minnesota, Michele Bachmann, could somehow get the nomination). Sadly, it's starting to look like even that outside chance is fading from possibility. If recent polls are correct, Republicans may be coming to their senses and turning their backs on Palin.
Recent polls by NBC News and the Pew Research Center showed that Palin's support had dropped several points and now rested in the low double digits (Pew had her at 13%). Now two new polls show that the drop seems to be real. The Gallup Poll has Palin's popularity currently at 12%. This is a 4% drop from the Gallup Poll of just one month ago.
The CNN/Opinion Research Poll showed an even bigger drop. They had been showing her support at about 19%, but their most recent poll shows that number has now shrunk to 12% -- a 7% drop. If only one or two polls said something, the possibility would exist that somehow that poll was wrong. But when four respected polls show the same thing, then it is likely to be real. It looks like Sarah Palin's support among Republicans is dropping.
There was a time when she was the darling of the teabagger crowd. But while she has continued to make a fool of herself publicly, other Republicans have been moving to the right-wing fringe to appeal to the teabaggers (who seem to be taking over the Republican Party). Now the teabaggers no longer have to depend on Palin to carry their water for them. They have a whole range of candidates who could appeal to them -- Gingrich, Pawlenty, Santorum, Bachmann, Ron/Rand Paul, Huckabee, Cain. This seems to have taken a bit of the luster off the Palin candidacy.
Unless Palin can improve those numbers before the campaign really starts, it no longer looks like she could arrive at the convention with one of the top two or three delegate counts. This is really too bad. Her candidacy would have been relished by Democrats.
Hmm... Interesting. Thanks for keeping me up with the shape of the GOP field. It is really getting entertaining.
ReplyDeleteI think that Palin's ratings are falling because the crazy flat-earther vote is so split at this point.
To me, Palin has always seemed like a more effective GOP fundraiser than candidate. And now that we have Bachmann bragging about her "Lightbulb Freedom of Choice Act," we don't even need Palin for the Women-Against-Women's-Interests" vote...
"To me, Palin has always seemed like a more effective GOP fundraiser than candidate."
ReplyDeleteThat really is her strong suit, which is why many congressional candidates sought her personal appearance at their rallies, except in the more purple districts where it might work against them among independents.
I think 2012 will be a real horse race, because unlike previous GOP presidential campaigns, there's no "next in line" candidate who's waiting to be anointed by the party elite. It could go back and forth numerous times before the convention. Heck, there might even be a floor fight! We haven't seen one of the those in a long time.
On the Democratic side, don't be surprised if there's a Kucinich or Feingold who plays Eugene McCarthy to Obama's Lyndon Johnson, especially if Libya goes sour.
Fasten your seat belts; it's going to be a bumpy ride next year.
Just remember -
ReplyDeleteAt the end of August 2007, "everybody" knew that the Democratic nominee would be Hillary Clinton, and "everybody" knew that John McCain was done.
Six months later, at the end of February 2008, Barack Obama had opened up what turned out to be an insurmountable lead in the race for the Democratic nomination, and John McCain had the R nomination wrapped up.
She isn't done until the votes are counted or she decides not to do the work to get on the ballot in the R primary.