Bernie Sanders has been drawing large crowds when he speaks, and he has corralled a good portion of the liberal Democrats (also referred to as progressives). Many of those were the people already looking for an alternative to supporting Hillary Clinton. They were begging Elizabeth Warren to run, and when she made it clear that wouldn't happen, they jumped on Bernie's bandwagon.
But as poll after poll has shown, Sanders has yet to significantly cut into Clinton's lead among Democrats -- even among liberal Democrats (Sanders' natural constituency). Why is this? He's a good candidate with a good platform -- and if he was somehow to win the nomination, most Democrats would proudly vote for him (as I would).
I have a theory. Many Democrats (including liberals like me) had already made their minds up before Bernie Sanders jumped into the race for the nomination. They liked the graceful way Clinton admitted defeat in 2008 and supported Obama. They liked the service she gave our country -- both as a senator and as Secretary of State. They liked the liberal agenda she has supported throughout her political career (much more liberal than her husband). And they believed she has earned her shot at being elected to the presidency.
In other words, a lot of Democrats, maybe even most Democrats, had their minds made up to support Hillary Clinton before any Democrat officially entered the race. And it's a whole lot harder to convince someone to change who has made up their mind than it is to convince someone to change who is just "leaning" toward a candidate. I could be wrong, but I think that is what is happening -- and why I think it will be extremely hard for Sanders to win the nomination.
Although I support Hillary Clinton for the nomination (and will continue to do so), I do think Democrats are lucky to have two very good candidates running for their nomination in 2016. And I don't think either one will stoop to personal attacks against the other. I just hope the supporters of both will do the same -- keep the campaign on the issues, vote their conscience, and then support the eventual nominee of the party. Democrats are famous for disagreeing and fighting amongst themselves -- but this election we should do so respectfully, and then come together to keep a Democrat in the White House.
The charts above were made from information contained in a new Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between July 18th and 20th of a random national sample of 1,000 adults, with about a 4 point margin of error (a margin of error that would be slightly larger among just Democrats).
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That same poll also surveyed the entire sample on which political party they preferred (see chart below). It shows that Democrats will start the next election with a small advantage (36% to 26% among the general public). But neither party has enough support to win on their own. The coming election will be decided by which candidate the Independents choose to vote for. All this chart shows is that Democrats will need less Independent support to win than Republicans will require.
I have a slightly different theory, but which is totally consistent with yours. I think Democrats really hated to choose between Obama and Clinton in 2008. So they have been waiting these last 7 years for the chance to finally have their cake and eat it too. I am very much a Sanders supporter, but I think I'm pretty typical in thinking that Clinton is great too. I've always felt that Sanders had about a 25% ceiling on support against Clinton. Not that he won't win some small states, but I suspect him to get something like that in Texas and California. Regardless, I do think that Sanders will make Clinton a better candidate. And I'm expecting a good and substantive election. It will be really interesting to see if our Very Serious Media notice that the Democrats are talking about issues and the Republicans are shouting about the best way to end Medicare.
ReplyDeleteYou are probably right. I supported Obama in 2008, even though I liked both candidates -- and I promised to support Clinton if she ran in 2016. I will honor that promise. I think a lot of others did the same, which means our minds were made up before we even knew who all would be running.
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