Friday, July 24, 2015

Trump And Clinton Still Leading In New National Poll



This survey was just released by Public Policy Polling. It was done on July 20th and 21st of a random national sample of 524 Republicans and 496 Democrats. The margin of error for Republicans is 4.3 points, and for Democrats is 4.4 points.

Donald Trump still has the lead among Republican candidates with 19%. But that is only a 2 point lead over Scott Walker (17%), 7 points over Jeb Bush (12%), and 9 points over Ben Carson (10%) and Marco Rubio (10%). Mike Huckabee can in sixth with 8%. No other candidate got more than 4%. It seems there is a top tier of 6 candidate, and then ten others who are having a lot of trouble getting significant support (including Christie, Cruz, Paul, and Perry, who were all considered to have a real chance at the nomination not long ago).

PPP has Trump with 5 points less than the recent ABC News / Washington Post Poll, and closer to the other candidates. Is it because of his attack on McCain, or just a difference between the poll's samples? I don't think we can be sure yet.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton still has a significant majority of support at 57%. Bernie Sanders is second with 22 points -- 35 points behind Clinton.

Clinton was matched against the Republicans in this poll, and leads all of them -- Paul by 3 points, Bush-Rubio-Walker by 5 points, Huckabee by 6 points, Carson-Christie-Cruz by 8 points, Florin by 10 points, and Trump by 13 points.

Sanders was also matched against Republicans. He bested Trump by 10 points, but lost to all the others -- 7 points against Bush, 5 points against Rubio, and 1 point against Walker.

The demographic breakdown of Democratic support is in the chart below, for those of you who are interested.


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