The image above is an example of many like it that I have seen recently inundating social media sites. The supporters of Bernie Sanders want us to believe that the good turnout to hear Sanders speak means he has huge support among Democrats (and a good chance to win the Democratic nomination).
Don't get me wrong -- I like Bernie Sanders a lot, and I'm happy he is getting good crowds. I think he's one of the few really good politicians in Washington, and I would hate it if he was not getting good crowds (even though I personally support Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination). However, I think you need to be cautious about trying to predict a support level simply from crowd size (especially since the polls don't show he is close to Clinton).
A couple of things need to be considered. The first is that you can't assume someone supports the candidate just because they show up to hear him speak. I know a good number of Clinton supporters showed up to see Sanders when he came to Houston, and I suspect the same is true in many other places.
You must remember that in many places the people rarely get to see an actual candidate. I know if Sanders came here to Amarillo, every active Democrat in the area would flock to see him (whether they supported him for the nomination or not) -- because we don't often get to see candidates (or other famous people). And the same would be true if Clinton came to town.
It reminds me of the 2008 campaign when Bill Clinton came to Amarillo to plug Hillary's candidacy. An overflowing crowd of thousands filled a rather large auditorium to standing room capacity only. Looking at that huge crowd, one could assume that Hillary had the bulk of support among Amarillo Democrats. The problem is that the people were just there to see the former president -- and included many Obama supporters, and a large number of Republicans just wanting to see the president.
When primary day arrived, Clinton and Obama split the Amarillo Democratic votes right down the middle. And when the general election arrived, the city voted heavily for John McCain. In other words, the huge "Clinton crowd" meant very little when it came time to vote.
The other thing one must consider is that the people who show up to see a candidate (any candidate) make up only a very tiny percentage of the people who will vote on primary day (or in the general election) -- and the crowds that showed up tell you nothing about how those that stayed at home will vote.
As I said, I'm happy Bernie Sanders is drawing good crowds. It's always nice to see a good candidate being appreciated. But be very careful in drawing conclusions about candidate support from crowd sizes. While it might mean something, it could just as easily mean nothing at all.
NOTE TO BERNIE SANDERS AND HILLARY CLINTON -- Please come to Amarillo. We'd love to see you both, and I guarantee both of you would draw a big crowd.
As a Sanders support, I have to say that it reminds me of something that I don't like: Howard Dean in 2004. Ultimately, I think Sanders will run a better campaign. But you are right that excitement at rallies doesn't necessarily mean that much. It's a good sign, for sure. I'd rather he get big crowds than not. And I think it is great for the Democratic Party and for encouraging people to get involved. But alone, it doesn't mean all that much.
ReplyDeleteYou are right -- the crowds are great for the party, whether it is for Sanders or for Clinton.
ReplyDeleteI'm glad there are many going for Bernie I too like his politics, but Hillary is a better choice as her election will be as good at pissing off the rePUKEians as a black man...The rePUKEians could be more amicable with a white man. But I want to send them a message that they are ahole sociopaths and most don't like them. As I've told others it would be better to vote for a Nazi then the sociopathic rePUKEians!!!!!
ReplyDeleteAlso his gaining on Hillary is a good thing as this shows a strong socialist element in the US.
wonder if I can get them both to come to West for Westfest..get the Czech vote.
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