Hillary Clinton has a small lead over Bernie Sanders in Iowa (possibly as small as 10 points). In New Hampshire, Sanders is leading Clinton. Those are the first two caucus/primary states, and if the election was held right now, Clinton would come out of those two elections with a tiny lead over Sanders (maybe even tied).
South Carolina is the third state to pick their delegates, and that is where Clinton is likely to carve out a significant lead over Sanders. Just look at the results of this Public Policy Polling survey done between September 3rd and 6th. They surveyed 302 Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of 5.6 points (and 764 GOP primary voters with a margin of error of 3.6 points).
The poll shows Hillary Clinton (54%) with a 30-point lead over Joe Biden (24%) and an enormous 45-point lead over Bernie Sanders (9%). It seems obvious that Sanders is not doing a good job of selling his candidacy to Southern Democrats. That could change after the first couple of debates, but he has a lot of ground to make up. No other Democrat got more than 2% support.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump leads the pack with 37% support. Carson (21%) is 16 points behind, and Bush and Cruz (tied at 6%) are 31 points behind. All the other GOP candidates got 4% or less. The Republican race has been pretty volatile and could easily change again, but right now it's a two-man race in South Carolina (and nationally).
I agree with your analysis. I just don't see why PPP continues to include Biden in these polls. Am I alone in thinking that Biden isn't jumping into this race? It seems to me that all the discussion of this is from Republicans who are actually afraid of running against Clinton. I know there are Biden supporters in the Democratic Party. And I like Biden -- a lot! I think he is probably the best retail politician I have ever seen. I just don't see him running unless Clinton implodes.
ReplyDeleteI agree. He's not going to run as long as Hillary sustains her lead. I wish they'd take him out of the polls. It just muddies up the results.
Delete"I just don't see why PPP continues to include Biden in these polls." - it lowers Hillary's numbers and makes her look more vulnerable - after all the media must have its horse race.
ReplyDeleteI think you're right about that.
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