Friday, January 08, 2016

New Hampshire Is Still A Toss-Up Between Clinton & Sanders

We're only about a month away from the primary in New Hampshire, and according to a new Public Policy Polling survey, the Democratic race is still a toss-up in that state. While the survey gives Clinton a 3 point edge (47% to 44%), that is wishing the poll's margin of error.

Clinton's strength lies with Democrats, Women, and older voters. Sanders strength lies with Independents, men, and younger voters. This seems to give Clinton a small edge -- since traditionally Democrats, women, and older people tend to vote in larger numbers than their opposites. I'm not ready to say Clinton will win the state though -- only that Sanders has some work to do there. It is crucial for him to stay close in Iowa and win New Hampshire if he is to have a chance to change minds in later primaries.

Trump is still leading in New Hampshire, but with only 29% -- far from majority support. He is leading Rubio by 14 points, Kasich and Christie by 18 points, and Bush and Cruz by 19 points.

This survey was done between January 4th and 6th of a random sample of 480 likely Democratic primary voters and 515 likely Republican primary voters. The margin of error for Democrats is 4.5 points, and for Republicans is 4.3 points.

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