Monday, January 11, 2016

Poll Shows Iowa & New Hampshire A Dead Heat For Dems

There is a new NBC News / Marist Poll on presidential preferences in Iowa and New Hampshire. It was done between January 2nd and 7th of 422 likely Democratic voters and 456 likely Republican voters in Iowa -- and of 425 likely Democratic voters and 569 likely Republican voters in New Hampshire. The margin of error in Iowa is 4.8 points for Democrats and 4.6 points for Republicans. The margin of error in New Hampshire is 4.8 points for Democrats and 4.1 points for Republicans.

The New Hampshire poll among Democrats shows basically what other polls have shown recently -- that the race is very close, and either candidate could win. But the Iowa poll is different than other recent polls -- showing that the race is also a close one in that state (within the margin of error), and that either candidate could also win there.

Is this poll an outlier, or is Sanders really that close? Public Policy Polling will be releasing a new Iowa poll in a day or two, and maybe that will give us the answer.

For the Republicans, Iowa and New Hampshire are very different. Trump has a large lead in New Hampshire, but trails Cruz slightly in Iowa (although within the margin of error).

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