Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Clinton Still Leads Nationally Among Democrats

These charts were made from the new Public Policy Polling survey -- done between March 24th and 26th of a random national sample of 422 Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of 4.8 points.

The recent rumblings from the media talking heads is that Bernie Sanders has momentum, and might actually have a path to the Democratic nomination. I don't believe that. He has won some caucus states recently (which are his strength), but some big state primaries are coming up -- and they should settle any doubts anyone might have as to who the nominee will be (Hillary Clinton).

This new poll shows us that Clinton is still the choice of Democrats nationwide -- leading Sanders by 18 points (54% to 36%). And that is true of nearly every gender, race, and age demographic. It is only among the young that Sanders has a lead (35% to 49%).

Even more interesting is when the Democrats are broken down by ideology. One would expect that since Sanders is a socialist, he would be most popular among those who consider themselves "very liberal". But that is not true (see chart below). He actually loses by the biggest margin in that group (about 33 points). He does best, but still loses, among those who say they are conservatives.

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