Thursday, March 31, 2016

Even If He Wins, Wisconsin Will Not Be Good For Sanders

The chart above shows the two most recent polls from Wisconsin, and the RealClearPolitics average of the two polls. They are:

Emerson College Poll (March 20-22) 439 likely voters (4.6 point moe)

Marquette University Poll (March 24-28) 405 likely voters (6.3 point moe)

The difference in the Marquette poll is within the margin of error, and the difference in the Emerson poll is very close to it. This leaves me to think that the vote in Wisconsin will be very close between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders -- and either candidate could win that state next Tuesday (April 5th).

That is bad news for the Sanders campaign, because it means that it is very likely that Wisconsin will split its delegates between the two candidates. A Sanders win in Wisconsin would be just another moral victory for him, but it would not help him cut into the sizable delegate lead Hillary Clinton has. And that would really make it a defeat, because he is starting to run out of states (especially caucus states) that could help him cut into Clinton's delegate lead -- which must start to happen soon.

After Wisconsin, several large states have their primaries in April -- New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. A those states are very likely to increase the delegate lead significantly for Clinton.

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