Tuesday, March 01, 2016

Super Tuesday Chances And Predictions From Nate Silver

(The photo above of Clinton/Sanders is from leftfootforward.org.)

Today is Super Tuesday, and 11 states will go to the polls to choose their preference for the Democratic presidential nominee. America's best poll analyst, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com, has released his chances of winning and predictions of voting percentages for nine of the Super Tuesday states. The other two (Colorado and Minnesota) have caucuses (which depend mostly on turnout, and not the will of most people). Mr. Silver says:

ALABAMA

Chance of winning
Clinton...............99%
Sanders...............1%

Prediction
Clinton...............73.6%
Sanders...............23.5%

ARKANSAS

Chance of winning
Clinton...............98%
Sanders...............2%

Prediction
Clinton...............64.1%
Sanders...............32.5%

GEORGIA

Chance of winning
Clinton...............99%
Sanders...............1%

Prediction
Clinton...............69.9%
Sanders...............26.9%

MASSACHUSETTS

Chance of winning
Clinton...............87%
Sanders...............13%

Prediction
Clinton...............51.7%
Sanders...............45.2%

OKLAHOMA

Chance of winning
Clinton...............17%
Sanders...............83%

Prediction
Clinton...............45.1%
Sanders...............51.5%

TENNESSEE

Chance of winning
Clinton...............99%
Sanders...............1%

Prediction
Clinton...............64.9%
Sanders...............31.8%

TEXAS

Chance of winning
Clinton...............99%
Sanders...............1%

Prediction
Clinton...............65.2%
Sanders...............31.9%

VERMONT

Chance of winning
Clinton...............1%
Sanders...............99%

Prediction
Clinton...............10.8%
Sanders...............86.9%

VIRGINIA

Chance of winning
Clinton...............99%
Sanders...............1%

Prediction
Clinton...............62.5%
Sanders...............34.5%

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