Thursday, April 28, 2016

Looking At The Delegate Math For Democrats

(These caricatures of Sanders and Clinton are by DonkeyHotey.)

Bernie Sanders has run a passionate (and many times negative) campaign, and he has done better than many people (including myself) ever thought he would. And I don't begrudge him continuing that campaign until Democrats in the last 10 states have voted. But, whether his supporters are ready to admit it or not, this race is over -- since he has no chance now to win enough delegates to get the nomination. Last Tuesday night made that a certainty.

Let's just look at the delegate math (from Bloomberg Politics):

Primary/Caucus Delegates

Total Delegates

Hillary Clinton has a 328 delegate lead among the delegates won in primaries and caucuses, having won 56% of those delegates -- while Bernie Sanders won 44%. And when you consider all the delegates pledged to the campaign, Hillary has 809 more delegates, having 61% -- while Sanders has 39%.

There are still 1246 delegates still to be allocated. Clinton just needs to win 219 (or 17.6%) of those delegates to reach the magic number of 2383 delegates. Bernie has an impossible mountain to climb -- needing 1028 (or 82.5%) of the remaining delegates. Is there anyone with half a brain who thinks Clinton can't get 17.6% of the remaining delegates, or that Sanders could get 82.5% of the remaining delegates?

I know that Bernie and his supporters are now pinning their hopes on convincing super delegates to change their minds at the convention. That's a false hope (though I realize it's all that's left now). Why would any super delegates change their mind? Hillary Clinton has won more states, more delegates, and more votes (about 3 million more) than Sanders. By supporting Clinton, those super delegates are just reflecting the will of the majority of voters in their party.

We've still got a little shouting to do before the final states vote, but Hillary Clinton is going to be the Democratic presidential nominee. And that's because a substantial majority of Democrats want her to be the nominee.

1 comment:

  1. Dear Bernie,
    Give up old man...the end is here.
    sincerely, JS


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