Wednesday, April 13, 2016
Nate Silver's NY Primary Prediction (And Latest Polls)
Listening to Bernie Sanders speak a couple of days ago, I noticed he seemed to be dialing back expectations for his performance in the New York primary. Instead of saying he would win, he's now saying he'll make it close in New York. I'm not sure he can even do that.
The chart above shows the predictions of America's premiere poll analyst -- Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com). He thinks Hillary Clinton has a 99% chance of winning the New York Democratic primary. And his projected result is that she'll have a 20.8 margin of victory. If those predictions are true (and I think they probably are), that would be a crushing defeat for Sanders.
The chart below shows the latest polls on the New York Democratic primary, and all of them show Clinton with a fairly commanding lead. They are:
Quinnipiac University Poll (April 6-11) 860 likely voters (3.3 point moe)
NBC News / Wall Street Journal / Marist Poll (April 6-10) 557 likely voters (4.2 point moe)
NY1 / Baruch Poll (April 5-10) 632 likely voters (4.2 point moe)