Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Party Voting %'s If Trump/Sanders Are Not The Nominees

There has been a lot of talk among political pundits and on social media about what would happen if Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders did not win their party's nomination. The voters supporting both of them are very passionate. Would they stay with the party and vote for the party's candidate, or would they vote third party (or just stay at home on election day). It's a valid question, because it could help determine who the next occupant of the White House will be.

The Rasmussen Poll decided to find out, or at least see where the feelings lie right now. They questioned 1,000 likely voters on April 5th and 6th, and their survey had a margin of error of 3 points.

It turns out that if neither Trump nor Sanders were nominated, the Republican Party would be hurt more than the Democratic Party. About 80% of Democrats say they would vote for the party's nominee, while only 62% of Republicans say they would vote for the party's nominee. That's a significant 18 point difference, and means the Republican Party would have a tougher time uniting their party.

I think some of that 20% of Democrats would think better of their position and vote for the nominee by November. I'm not so sure Trump voters would do that. They are already feeling cheated, and I think a big hunk of them would vote Libertarian or just stay at home.

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