Is North Korea Marching To War ?

Once again tensions are being ramped up on the Korean peninsula and that heightening of tensions can be laid at the door of only one country -- North Korea. This all started with the North Korean development of nuclear weapons. The regime in North Korea thought that would give it more credibility and power in world affairs, and they could use that to intimidate and blackmail their smaller non-nuclear neighbors.

That hasn't worked out for them. All it has done is to permanently brand them as an international pariah and turned most of the world against them. Instead of forcing other nations to help them, it has made them even more isolated and presented the threat of boycotts that the bankrupt nation can little afford.

Then a few weeks ago a North Korean submarine sank a South Korean naval ship, killing over 40 South Korean sailors. There is little doubt that the ship was sunk by North Korea and that it was done intentionally. This was followed by some fiery rhetoric by North Korea saying they would "react with strong physical retaliation" to any actions by South Korea (or their allies).

Now the North Koreans have seized a South Korean fishing boat and they are currently holding it hostage along with its crew of seven civilian fishermen. The South Korean vessel was fishing in international waters in the Sea of Japan and its seizure makes no sense -- except as a war-enhancing provocation. Frankly, it's beginning to look like the North Koreans are looking for an excuse to once again invade South Korea.

Why would they do this? The main reason is the complete and utter failure of their economic system. They are one of the world's poorest countries and their population is starving. While they have found the money to maintain a large army and build a few nuclear weapons, they have utterly failed to feed their own people or give them a decent standard of living. Even the insane leaders of North Korea know this cannot go on forever -- the people will eventually reach a point where there is no alternative but to revolt, and that point may not be far away.

In the midst of their troubles, the North Korean leaders look to the south, where they see that South Korea has developed into a rich industrial nation that gives its citizens a high standard of living. They want what South Korea has, but they want it without having to alter their economic system (like other communist nations like China and Cuba are doing) or give up their hold on power.

The mental-midgets running North Korea believe they can seize and benefit from the wealth of South Korea. They don't understand that their system would quickly evaporate the wealth of the south if they were able to seize it. Instead, they see taking South Korea as a panacea for their problems.

I think North Korea has also been encouraged by the bloody and unending nation-building failures of the United States (South Korea's main ally) in Iraq and Afghanistan. They mistakenly see this as military weakness. They don't understand that while America may be very poor at using its military to "nation-build", it is extremely adept at fighting a conventional war (as evidenced by the first Gulf War). They may also be counting on a fear of China to keep the United States out of a new Korean War.

This is fast developing into a pretty scary situation. North Korea certainly looks like they are marching to war -- a war that could quickly involve the U.S. and China (and maybe other countries as well). Even scarier is the North Korean possession of a few nuclear weapons. The leaders of North Korea are crazy enough to actually use those nuclear weapons, especially when they find themselves losing that new war.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but it looks to me like the Korean peninsula is the most likely place for a new war to break out. The only real hope to prevent this is China (who is enjoying an economic rebirth and would not like to see that interrupted by a war). Can China rein in the hot-headed leaders of North Korea? I hope so. The alternative could be devastating.