Election Still Volatile & Up For Grabs

Reading the newspapers and watching what passes for news on TV these days might make one think this election is already over and there's little point in going to the polls and actually casting votes. The mainstream media seems to be convinced that America is largely composed of teabaggers and they will deliver one of both Houses of Congress to the Republicans.

I'm not buying it. The teabaggers are only a segment of the Republican Party and don't have the power to swing this election. This election will be decided by those in the middle -- the people that don't belong to either political party, and they have not made up their minds yet. I believe this coming election is still very volatile and could go either way.

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey was just released which shows just how confused the voters still are. Frankly, the poll had good and bad news for both political parties. First, lets look at the how the public views both parties. The poll shows:

DEMOCRATS

Approve...............36%

Neutral...............19%

Disapprove...............43%

Unsure...............2%

REPUBLICANS

Approve...............30%

Neutral...............25%

Disapprove...............43%

Unsure...............2%

That looks like a wash to me. While Democrats have a small advantage in approval, when the neutrals are added in the two parties both have 55% possible approval with a 43% disapproval. Advantage nobody.

Then we come to the issue of how much the government should be doing. In general, the Democrats think the government should be doing more to help Americans and the Republicans think the government should be doing less and let things take their course. What do the people think? Here it is:

Gov. should be doing more..........47%

Gov. should be doing less..........47%

Some of both..........3%

Unsure..........3%

That's another dead heat. The people are equally divided on whether the government should be doing more or doing less. This issue is probably not going to be a winner for either party. We get the same kind of numbers when the people were asked whether they wanted a Congress controlled by Republicans or Democrats. Here are the numbers:

Republican-controlled...............43%

Democrat-controlled...............43%

Unsure...............14%

Then we have the question of whether the voters would like a Republican, Democrat or Independent to win in their own congressional district. They said:

Republican...............32%

Democrat...............34%

Independent...............25%

Unsure...............9%

Since many districts don't have an Independent (or viable third-party candidate), we again have a situation where the vote could go either way. It's impossible to predict how the people who are unhappy with both parties will vote. And while the teabaggers and other Republicans would like this election to be a referendum of President Obama, the voters don't really see it that way (except for party regulars). Look at these results:

Vote will be to support Obama...............27%

Vote will be to oppose Obama...............29%

Vote is not a signal either way...............41%

Unsure...............3%

Finally we come to two issues that the people are definitely not evenly split on -- cutting the deficit and preservation of Social Security. Here is what the people think:

SPENDING SHOULD BE CUT

Yes...............61%

No...............28%

ABOLISH OR PRIVATIZE SOCIAL SECURITY

Yes...............21%

No...............68%

There are clearly large majorities on these two issues. The Republicans are beating the drum for cutting spending, but they also have an awful lot of candidates who want to abolish or privatize Social Security (which the Democrats staunchly support).

Obviously it would be beneficial for Republicans to keep their mouths shut about Social Security and campaign on cutting the deficit -- although their support of tax cuts for the rich could show that to be just a campaign lie. Just as obviously, it would behoove the Democrats to campaign on their support for Social Security and the Republican desire to abolish it. It's anybody's guess right now as to which issue would win.

This poll supports the idea that this election is still very volatile and could go either way. It will be decided by those who call themselves "neutral" or "independent" -- and we may not know how they decide to vote until election day.