Road To Nomination Gets Harder For Palin

I don't think there's any doubt that Sarah Palin would like to be president of the United States.   She hasn't announced yet that she's going to run for the Republican nomination in 2012, but there are signs that she's seriously considering running -- just a couple of days ago it was learned that she's sent some of her representatives down to Iowa to get the feel of that state and get some advice on how to proceed.

But it looks like her road to the Republican nomination is getting progressively more difficult as we get closer to the time candidates will begin to declare their candidacy.   It's no secret that her approval numbers are falling with the general public, and a recent poll showed her negative ratings are now above 50%.   Her one asset is her popularity with the teabagger element in the Republican Party -- she is without a doubt the "Queen of the teabaggers".

But a couple of very recent things show that she may not even be able to count on those teabaggers to support her for the Republican presidential nomination.   Republican Party leaders in the state of New Hampshire met this weekend and chose a new leader for the state party.   They chose a teabagger activist over a more moderate party official, showing that the teabagger element of the party is in control in that state.   Then a straw poll was taken of those same people on who they currently support for the presidential nomination (a poll that Palin should have done well in).   This is how that straw poll came out:

Mitt Romney...............35%
Ron Paul...............11%
Tim Pawlenty...............8%
Sarah Palin...............7%
Michele Bachmann...............5%
Jim DeMint...............5%
Mike Huckabee...............3%
Chris Christie...............3%
Rick Santorum...............3%
Mitch Daniels...............3%
Newt Gingrich...............3%
Rudy Giuliani...............2%
Judd Gregg...............2%
Gary Johnson...............2%
other...............2%
Donald Trump...............1%
Haley Barbour...............1%

That 7% has to hurt, especially knowing that group was dominated by teabaggers.   And another poll, this time a real scientific poll done by Public Policy Polling (done January 14th through 16th with a 3.3 point margin of error) shows that Palin might not even be able to beat President Obama in the state of Texas.   Considering that Texas just elected a teabagger governor and a whole slew of teabagger Republicans to their legislature, that's pretty amazing.

John McCain carried the state of Texas rather easily in the 2008 election, showing that Texas is one of the reddest of the red states.   Most people expect the Republican candidate in 2012 to also have an easy time winning Texas.   But that may not be true -- if that candidate is Sarah Palin.   The PPP poll asked Texans about four major Republican hopefuls and they all beat President Obama by more than the margin of error.   That is, all of them except Sarah Palin.   Palin was virtually tied with the president, showing that he could actually win the state if she is his opponent.   Here are the numbers:

Huckabee..........55%
Obama..........39%
Undecided..........5%

Romney..........49%
Obama..........42%
Undecided..........9%

Gingrich..........48%
Obama..........43%
Undecided..........9%

Palin..........47%
Obama..........46%
Undecided..........7%

Frankly that's a pretty pathetic showing in a state where teabaggers don't have any problem getting elected.   If she's going to have any chance, she's going to have to mend fences with independents.   While independents voted for Republicans in large numbers in the last election in Texas, they are not prepared to support Palin.   She has a 61% unfavorable rating among Texas independents.   Texas independents lean toward the Republican Party, but there is a limit to that and Palin seems to be beyond that limit.

If New Hampshire and Texas are any indication, and I believe they are, then Palin has a long way to go before she can be taken seriously as a presidential contender.