Opinions Do Change

Back in 2008 the voters of California passed Proposition 8 -- which denied gays/lesbians the right to marry the person they loved. At the time, opinion polls showed only 51% of Californians favored equal marriage rights (while 42% opposed). The proponents of Prop 8 spent a huge chunk of money to convince people that giving gays/lesbians the right to marry would mean that homosexuality would be taught in California schools. It was a lie (and a stupid argument), but convinced enough voters to allow Prop 8 to pass by a small margin.

Since then, the matter has been in the courts. Prop 8 was declared unconstitutional by a California judge, and his ruling has been upheld by an appeals court. The religious bigots who proposed Prop 8 might still appeal to the Supreme Court (and likely will), but it seems that bigotry is losing ground among Californians. As the top chart shows, that 51% who favored marriage equality has now grown to 59%. And the 42% who opposed it has now dropped to only 34%. In other words, a 9 point difference has now grown to a 25 point difference.

And as the bottom chart shows, the increase in support for equality cuts across all demographic lines. In every single group, including Republicans and religious organizations, the support for marriage equality has grown dramatically in the last couple of years. Part of the reason for this is the huge amount of publicity the issue has received since the passage of Prop 8. And people who once could avoid taking a stand on the issue, can no longer do that since it is a publicly discussed issue.

And once the issue tumbled out of the closet and the public was forced to confront it, more and more people began to come down on the side of equality rather than bigotry. So much so that if the issue were to go before the voters again, it is highly unlikely that anything like Prop 8 could pass in California again. And it is not just in California that public opinion is changing. It is changing across the country, even in red state bastions.

Bigotry can only survive when ordinarily decent people are able to ignore it. Oddly enough, it is the bigots themselves who are making this an issue that can't be ignored. And forced to choose, most people are choosing equality. All across the country the right-wing fundamentalists are once again waging a war, not just on equal marriage rights, but also on race and women's rights. It is a war they cannot win, because no decent person wants to return to this country's bigoted past.