Romney Has Some Big Problems

Some people might think this is a happy time for Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie), but I disagree. He may now be finally assured of winning the Republican nomination, but in capturing that nomination he has branded himself as a right-wing extremist to most Americans while still not being fully trusted by the party's real right-wing extremists. His only real base of support is on Wall Street, and while they can provide him with a lot of money, they don't have many votes.

Some people think he will now move back toward the center to try and get some Independents to vote for him (return to his "real" views as one campaign functionary puts it). I'm not sure he can -- for several reasons.

First, a majority of the Republican Party base already doesn't trust him. If he tries to abandon the right-wing positions he took in the primary, he stands a good chance that many of them will either vote for a third party, or worse, just stay at home on election day. That would be disastrous not only for Romney, but also for down-ballot Republicans.

Second, we are living in the computer age. Once a candidate stakes out his views, they do not go away. They are available for his opponents to replay endlessly. "Etch-A-Sketch" politics is simply not viable in this internet age.

Third, the primary campaign is not yet over. It may be another couple of months before he can get enough delegates to put him over the top. He's going to have a shorter period of time to try and moderate his views that candidates in the past have had (if it can be done at all).

Fourth, he has alienated a very large group of voters by joining the congressional Republicans' "war on women". While that may have helped him with teabaggers (who don't care about equality) and evangelicals (who believe their religion says women should be second-class citizens), it has hurt him seriously among women in general. This can clearly be seen by CNN Polls taken on 11/17/2011 and on 3/14/2012. Compare the numbers for yourself:

WHERE WOMEN STOOD ON 11/17/2011

All Women
Obama...............51%
Romney...............44%

Women 18-49
Obama...............55%
Romney...............42%

Women Over 50
Obama...............48%
Romney...............46%

White Women
Obama...............43%
Romney...............52%

WHERE WOMEN STAND NOW

All Women
Obama...............58%
Romney...............38%

Women 18-49
Obama...............64%
Romney...............33%

Women Over 50
Obama...............54%
Romney...............41%

White Women
Obama...............48%
Romney...............48%

Those are some fairly radical changes. He has lost 13 points among all women, 18 points among young women, 11 points among older women, and 9 points among white women. And these losses have pushed the 12 swing states solidly into the Obama column.

Can Romney turn this around? Not without completely abandoning the right-wing positions he has taken in the primary -- and that could cost him just as dearly. Romney has put himself between a rock and a hard place, and it won't be easy to extricate himself from it -- especially with Democrats continually reminding voters of his extreme-right positions.

And there is one more stat that shows Romney is in trouble. After winning the nomination (which in essence, if not in reality, he has), candidates in the past (even losing candidates) have started their general election campaign with a net favorable rating (their favorable rating being higher than their unfavorable rating). That is not true for Romney. Here are the numbers:

1996 (Dole)..........+22
2000 (Gore)..........+17
2000 (Bush)..........+19
2004 (Kerry)..........+17
2008 (McCain)..........+19
2008 (Obama)..........+18

2012 (Romney)..........-12

Willard Mitt Romney has some very big problems. And that mountain of problems could easily be too tall for him to climb.