Thoughts On Wisconsin - It May Not Be As Bad As Some Progressives Think

The recall election in Wisconsin is now over, and the results were not as good as I had hoped. And to hear the right-wingers today (including their presidential hopeful, Wall Street Willie), you might think the state is lost to Democrats in the November election. Even many on the left are very pessimistic today about the returns -- saying it shows the power of big money to overcome the will of the people. But after thinking about the results, I'm not so sure that either of those outlooks is valid.

There are at least three bright spots that came out of yesterday's recall election, and I believe these should give progressives the hope and courage to fight on for a better outcome in November. Here are those three things:

* While the big money flowed into the Walker campaign from right-wing sources all over the country (like the Koch brothers) allowing Walker to outspend his opponent by about 9 to 1, exit polls show that may not have been the deciding factor in the election after all. A much more important factor is the legitimacy of the recall election in the eyes of a majority of voters. It turns out there were three points of view among voters about the recall election:

27% believe a recall election is justified for any reason (and Walker lost among this group by a 90% to 9% margin).

10% believe a recall election is never appropriate (and Walker won among this group by a 94% to 5% margin).

60% (a clear majority of those who voted) believe a recall election is justified only for official misconduct (and Walker won among this group by a 68% to 31% margin).

Whether we progressives want to admit it or not, this was a recall election called for political reasons, not official misconduct. Too many voters thought that was not a good reason to hold a recall election. Many of these people might actually vote against Walker when he runs again, but were not willing to do so in a recall election. While I personally wish Walker had lost Tuesday night, I have to admit this 60% may have a valid point of view (and that point of view may have trumped the massive amount of money pumped into the campaign).

* Walker's right-wing agenda may have been effectively neutered by the election. While he remains in the governor's office, he lost his majority in the state senate. In Racine County, Democrat John Lehman beat the incumbent Republican, Van Wanggaard, by about 800 votes. There will be a recount, but the 800 vote margin should hold up. This gives the Democrats a 17 to 16 majority in that legislative body.

* Exit polls showed that the same voters who allowed Walker to stay in office favor the president in the coming November election -- by a large margin. After all the exit polling was completed, the president held a 12 point margin over Romney (54% to 42%). Romney's got a lot of work to do to even be competitive in Wisconsin.