Is Obamacare A Good Election Issue ?

Now that the Supreme Court has declared almost all of the Affordable Care Act (commonly called Obamacare) to be constitutional, the question arises as to whether this decision will play an integral part in the upcoming election. The Republican Party believes it can, and they have seized upon the tax part of Obamacare to try and convince Americans to vote against the president and other Democrats. And the claim they are making is that Obamacare represents "the biggest tax hike in history".

The chart above shows that is an outrageous claim, and not even close to true. There have been many larger tax increases, including increases by presidents Reagan, Bush II, and Clinton. Another misrepresentation the Republicans are trying to sell the American people is that the "individual mandate" composes the largest part of this increase in taxes, and will affect a large part of the population. The truth is that the individual mandate will only affect from 2% to 5% of the population, and will raise less than 10% of the taxes mandated by Obamacare.

The other 90% of taxes raised by Obamacare will fall on the rich -- with a larger Medicare tax applied only to high earners, a slightly larger tax on investment income, a tax on extremely expensive insurance policies, and a tax on insurance companies. And that tells you right away why Republicans hate Obamacare, because it raises taxes on their true constituency, the only people they really care about -- rich people. But since a huge majority of Americans already think the rich should be paying more taxes, they have to disguise their argument as a tax raise for everyone.

The truth is, and congressional Republicans know this (even though they refuse to admit it), that the huge majority of Americans will not see any tax raise at all due to Obamacare. What they will see is better insurance policies (that cover pre-existing conditions, with no cap on medical costs for the patients, and policies that can't be dropped when a consumer gets sick), and more Americans getting decent health care insurance. While not perfect, Obamacare is a big improvement over the status quo.

But are the American people buying into the Republican argument that the Supreme Court decision upholding Obamacare is a bad thing for America -- a bad enough thing to affect the upcoming election? Let's look at some polls taken since the Supreme Court decision. The first is the survey conducted by the Pew Research Center.

DO YOU AGREE WITH THE SUPREME COURT DECISION ON OBAMACARE?
Yes...............36%
No..............40%
Don't know...............24%

That doesn't show that most Americans are upset with the decision. Only 40% opposed it, while 60% either approved of it or didn't know what they thought of it. Even more revealing is the next question they asked.

WHAT WAS THE SUPREME COURT DECISION ON OBAMACARE?
Upheld it...............55%
Rejected it...............15%
Don't know...............30%

That's pretty amazing. About 45% of the population were not even interested enough to follow the issue enough to know what the Supreme Court decision actually was. That doesn't make it look like this is an issue that's going to be very important in the coming election. Those upset by the decision were mainly Republicans (and Republican-leaning Independents), and those votes were already going to Romney anyway. Then we have the CNN/ORC Poll. It asked:


DO YOU AGREE WITH THE SUPREME COURT DECISION ON OBAMACARE?
Yes...............50%
No...............49%
Don't know...............1%

But perhaps more interesting is when the survey asked if respondents were angry about the Supreme Court decision (which might mean it would translate into an issue they would vote on in the coming election). Amazingly, only about 20% (or about one in five) said they were angry about the decision. This is more proof that the decision on Obamacare is unlikely to significantly affect the upcoming election. Next is the NBC News/Washington Post Poll.

IS YOUR OPINION OF THE SUPREME COURT DECISION FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE?
Favorable...............43%
Unfavorable...............42%
Don't know...............15%

IS YOUR OPINION OF OBAMACARE FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE?
Favorable...............45%
Unfavorable...............48%
Don't know...............7%

WOULD YOUR OPINION OF A ROMNEY PLAN BE FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE?
Favorable...............30%
Unfavorable...............47%
Don't know...............23%

Frankly, this poll doesn't show most people have much faith in any alternative plan by the Republicans. While the population is split pretty evenly on whether the Supreme Court decision or Obamacare is the right answer to healthcare reform, they really don't have confidence that a Romney plan (repeal & replace) would be better. Only about 30% say it it would be better, while 47% say it wouldn't be. The people may be unsure about Obamacare, but they know the Republicans don't offer anything better. Finally, we have the Kaiser Foundation Poll.

DO YOU APPROVE OF THE SUPREME COURT DECISION ON OBAMACARE?
Approve...............47%
Disapprove...............43%
Don't know...............10%

SHOULD OPPONENTS OF OBAMACARE CONTIUE TRYING TO BLOCK IT OR MOVE ON TO OTHER PROBLEMS FACING THIS NATION?
Continue to block it...............38%
Move on to other problems...............56%
Don't know...............7%

While Americans may be unsure about Obamacare, most are ready to put it behind them and move on to other, more pressing problems (including 51% of Independents, 26% of Republicans, and 82% of Democrats). The Republican Party is sadly mistaken if they think the Supreme Court decision on Obamacare will swing the election in their favor. The coming election will be decided on two issues -- jobs and the economy. That was true before the Supreme Court decision, and it's still true.