Religious Coalitions In 2012 Election

This is another, and slightly different, view of the coalitions put together by each of the presidential candidates. Note that Willard Mitt Romney's coalition depended mainly on white christians (75%). This broke down to 37% white evangelical protestant, 19% white mainline protestant, and 19% white catholic. Only 16% came from African-American and Hispanic christians and people from other religions, while 8% came from non-religious people. The chart shows that Romney's coalition was most similar to the over 65 age group. Actually it was the picture of an even older America -- America like it was three generations ago.

But the Obama coalition was much broader based. It was composed of 38% white christian, 26% African-American and Hispanic christians, 13% other christians and other religions, and 23% non-religious people. Note that his coalition fits neatly between the 18-29 and 30-49 age groups. In other words it is more representative of the America that exists today. It is also more representative of the America of the future, where non-religious voters and minority christian voters and voters from other religions will play an ever-growing part in our elections.

Much has been made of the fact that the Romney campaign (and Republicans in general) did not appeal to minority voters (losing 95% of African-Americans, 71% of Hispanics, and 73% of Asians). But there is another group that Republicans did very poorly with, and it's a rapidly growing group. It is the non-religious sector of the American population. And like minorities, this segment of voters is growing large enough that it can no longer be ignored.

America is changing, and the change will grow larger with each election. The day a national candidate can win by appealing only to white christians is fast disappearing. It may work in House Districts (because many of them are still dominated by white christians), but it is a losing proposition for a national candidacy, and will soon be a losing proposition in most statewide contests.

The Republicans face a choice. Do they want to continue campaigning only to white theocrats, and remain a party that can only win diminishing seats in the House? Or do they want to alter some of their policies (the ones that are abhorrent to minorities, young people, and non-religious people) and once again become a competitive national party?

I don't think they are ready yet to make that decision. Too many in their teabagger base still think they just didn't have a conservative enough candidate this time, or just didn't sell their hateful views hard enough. It will be interesting to watch the Wall Street Republicans fight the teabagger Republicans for control of the party. I still think the teabaggers will rule the day for a while longer (numbers over money), but someday soon the Republicans will have to face the truth -- or join the Whigs in the dustbin of history.