Presidential Preference Among U.S. Religious Groups

A few days ago, I brought you the results of a religious breakdown among christian groups in this country from the Public Religion Research Institute. Now the Gallup Poll has released a similar survey (done between July 1st and August 28th), and their survey includes other religions.

It shows Trump has an advantage among White protestants (+28), White catholics (+10), and mormons (+17). Clinton has the advantage among Black protestants (+66), Hispanic catholics (+55), jews (+29), muslims (+55), other non-christian religions (+30), and the non-religious (+25).

The "Non-Religious" Are The Fastest Growing Group In The U.S.

This chart shows that religion in the United States is experiencing some difficulties. In the seven years since 2007, all three major christian groups have lost membership -- evangelicals about 0.9%, mainline protestants about 3.4%, and catholics about 3.1%. The only two groups that experienced growth are the non-christian religions by about 1.2 % and the non-religious by a whopping 6.7%.

The growth of the non-religious in the last seven years has been remarkable -- and has boosted them from 4th place among the groups to 2nd place now (vaulting them past the mainline protestants and the catholics). There is no reason to believe these trends won't continue.

The chart was made from information provided by the Pew Research Center.

Growth Of The Non-Religious In The United States

Since 1972, the Social Science Research Center at the University of Chicago (with from the National Science Foundation) has been taking a General Social Survey -- and one of the things they have been keeping tabs on is religion in the United States. The charts above show the results of that research by decade.

Note that this survey (as many others have also) shows there has been an explosion of growth in the United States of people who define themselves as non-religious. Those defining themselves as non-religious have grown from 6.8% of the population in the 1970's to about 19.7% of the population in 2012 -- a staggering growth, and there is no reason to believe this segment won't continue to grow in the future.

The second chart shows an interesting thing -- that this growth of the non-religious hasn't come from all religions equally. Note that the Catholics have dropped only a minuscule 2.2% over those four decades, while the percentage believing in non-christian religions has actually grown by 8.2%. It is the protestants who have lost the biggest percentage, about 19% (from 63.3% in the 1970's to about 44.3% in 2012).

I could be wrong, but I believe this is a reaction to the hatred and bigotry being preached by the fundamentalist protestants. This hatred and bigotry is far removed from what their own "savior" (Jesus) preached, and I think it is turning many young and educated people off to organized religion(and religion in general).

Here is a demographic breakdown of the non-religious community:

Decline Of Religion In The U.S.

The above figures are derived from a massive Gallup Poll conducted between January 2nd and November 30th of this year of 326,721 adults (18 and older) chosen randomly from across the nation. The huge number of respondents gives the poll a very high degree of accuracy, with a margin of error of only 1 point.

While the poll shows that 69% of the American population is either moderately or very religious, the really shocking statistic is the third one -- that 31% of the population is not religious at all. That is a very high number -- even higher than the results from a recent Pew Research Center Poll, which found the number of the nonreligious to be about 20% (although growing faster than any other religious group). That means at least 3 out of every 10 people in the U.S. is either an atheist, agnostic, or otherwise has no religion.

Now the only thing this proves is that the United States is becoming less and less religious as time passes. But amazingly, the author of a new book (God Is Alive And Well: The Future Of Religion In America) takes these figures (and others dating back to polls as old as 2008) to reach the conclusion that religion is on the verge of making a big comeback in this country.

The author bases this conclusion on the ideas that the most religious age group is the one composed of people over 65 years old, and that people get more religious as they age -- and since the large group of "baby boomers" are starting to enter that age group that means the percentage of the religious will increase. The first premise is true. The current crop of elderly people are the most religious age group. The Pew Research Center found the following percentages of nonreligious people by age group:

Born 1913 to 1927...............5%
Born 1928 to 1945...............9%
Born 1946 to 1964...............15%
Born 1965 to 1980...............21%
Born 1981 to 1989...............30%
Born 1990 to 1994...............34%

But while the oldest couple of groups do have the lowest percentage of the nonreligious, we must take into account that they were born into (and grew up in) a much different America -- a much more religious America. This group didn't necessarily become more religious as they aged -- they were always more religious than the age groups that came after them.

The author seems to be basing his belief on people growing more religious as they start to face death, but there is no proof that happens in any significant numbers. It's much like the old christian idea that "there are no atheists in foxholes" (that people run toward a belief in god if faced with possible death). But as we know, there are plenty of atheists in foxholes -- and the danger they face does not make them accept a god they discarded after much lengthy thought.

The fact is that most atheists and agnostics gave up the myth of a god after a lengthy and painful period of soul-searching -- and there is no reason (other than religious wishful thinking) to believe they will abandon their non-belief just because they are getting older. Of course there is always some movement between non-belief and belief (people changing their minds), but there is no reason to believe this will favor religious belief in a significant way. In fact, both the Gallup and Pew polls seem to show just the opposite -- that the larger numbers of people are moving away from a belief in god and organized religion.

Another reason that could inhibit the movement of people back toward religion was released in another recent Gallup Poll. This poll surveyed the publics attitudes on which professions were considered to be honest and ethical by most people. Somewhat surprisingly, the clergy did not do real well in that -- with only 53% of Americans considering the clergy (whether protestant, catholic, or other) to be honest and ethical. That's an even lower number than the percentage of people who consider themselves religious -- meaning that even many religious people have serious doubts about the honesty of the clergy.

The baby boomers are already reaching the age of 65, and we will soon know if that makes them more religious. I don't believe it will.

Religious Coalitions In 2012 Election

This is another, and slightly different, view of the coalitions put together by each of the presidential candidates. Note that Willard Mitt Romney's coalition depended mainly on white christians (75%). This broke down to 37% white evangelical protestant, 19% white mainline protestant, and 19% white catholic. Only 16% came from African-American and Hispanic christians and people from other religions, while 8% came from non-religious people. The chart shows that Romney's coalition was most similar to the over 65 age group. Actually it was the picture of an even older America -- America like it was three generations ago.

But the Obama coalition was much broader based. It was composed of 38% white christian, 26% African-American and Hispanic christians, 13% other christians and other religions, and 23% non-religious people. Note that his coalition fits neatly between the 18-29 and 30-49 age groups. In other words it is more representative of the America that exists today. It is also more representative of the America of the future, where non-religious voters and minority christian voters and voters from other religions will play an ever-growing part in our elections.

Much has been made of the fact that the Romney campaign (and Republicans in general) did not appeal to minority voters (losing 95% of African-Americans, 71% of Hispanics, and 73% of Asians). But there is another group that Republicans did very poorly with, and it's a rapidly growing group. It is the non-religious sector of the American population. And like minorities, this segment of voters is growing large enough that it can no longer be ignored.

America is changing, and the change will grow larger with each election. The day a national candidate can win by appealing only to white christians is fast disappearing. It may work in House Districts (because many of them are still dominated by white christians), but it is a losing proposition for a national candidacy, and will soon be a losing proposition in most statewide contests.

The Republicans face a choice. Do they want to continue campaigning only to white theocrats, and remain a party that can only win diminishing seats in the House? Or do they want to alter some of their policies (the ones that are abhorrent to minorities, young people, and non-religious people) and once again become a competitive national party?

I don't think they are ready yet to make that decision. Too many in their teabagger base still think they just didn't have a conservative enough candidate this time, or just didn't sell their hateful views hard enough. It will be interesting to watch the Wall Street Republicans fight the teabagger Republicans for control of the party. I still think the teabaggers will rule the day for a while longer (numbers over money), but someday soon the Republicans will have to face the truth -- or join the Whigs in the dustbin of history.