The Prognosticators

There have been a ton of polls coming out -- both for the nation as a whole and for the swing states in particular. And if you've been paying attention, then you know that there is a wide variety in what they say. So, who is going to win this election? The political section of the Denver Post (titled Election 2012) decided to find out by questioning some political prognosticators -- nine of them. They give their answers in terms of the electoral college vote they expect each candidate to win (since the president is NOT elected by popular vote in this country). Here are their answers as reported by Ryan Teague Beckwith:

Drew Linzer
Political Science professor at Emory University
Prediction:
Obama..........332
Romney..........206

Josh Putnam
Political Science professor at Davidson College
Prediction:
Obama..........332
Romney..........206

Sam Wang
Statistical Analyst for the Princeton Election Consortium
Prediction:
Obama..........319
Romney..........219

Nate Silver
Statistician and Poll Analyst at NY Times blog FiveThirtyEight
Prediction:
Obama..........303
Romney..........235

Scott Elliott
Conservative Analyst at website called Election Projection
Prediction:
Obama..........290
Romney..........248

Real Clear Politics
Political website
Prediction:
Obama..........290
Romney..........248

Talking Points Memo
Political website
Prediction:
Obama..........285
Romney..........191
Toss-up..........62

Jay DeSart and Thomas Holbrook
Political Science professors at Utah Valley University and University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Prediction:
Obama..........281
Romney..........257

Andrew S. Tanenbaum
Computer Science professor at Vrije Universiteit (Netherlands)
Prediction:
Obama..........281
Romney..........215
Toss-up..........42