The Demographics That Scare GOP Leaders

(Image is from the website of Paul Vallely.)

There used to be a time when the white vote ruled in American elections, and during those times the Republicans did very well in national elections. Those times are fast disappearing, and may in fact, already be gone. In 2008 and 2012, President Obama put together a coalition of huge majorities of all minority groups, along with a majority of young people and women and a minority of white voters, to easily coast to victory.

And there is a demographic trend that shows this kind of coalition may be even easier for Democrats in the coming years. That trend shows that with each presidential election there are more minority voters and less white voters -- and there is no reason to believe that trend won't continue for many more years (and elections). This is, and should be, very troubling for the Republican Party -- since they hold numerous views and policies that minorities disagree with (and find to be anathema to their interests). Look at this trend from the data compiled by the Census Bureau and by exit polling:

COMPOSITION OF ELECTORATE (CENSUS BUREAU)

Whites
2004...............79.2
2008...............76.3
2012...............73.7

Blacks
2004...............11.1
2008...............12.3
2012...............13.4

Hispanics
2004...............6.0
2008...............7.4
2012...............8.4

Asians
2004...............2.2
2008...............2.6
2012...............2.9

Others
2004...............1.42
2008...............1.4
2012...............1.5

CITIZEN VOTING (EXIT POLLING)

Whites
2004...............79.2
2008...............73.4
2012...............71.1

Blacks
2004...............11.9
2008...............12.1
2012...............12.5

Hispanics
2004...............8.2
2008...............9.5
2012...............10.8

Asians
2004...............3.2
2008...............3.4
2012...............3.8

Others
2004...............1.5
2008...............1.5
2012...............1.7

As you can see, the trend is not good for the Republicans (regardless of which source is used). The percentage of minority voters is growing while the percentage of white voters continues to shrink. GOP leaders have seen these numbers, and can read the writing on the wall. That's why they have proposed alter at least some of their policies (like on immigration reform) to reach out to minorities (especially Hispanics, who are the fastest growing demographic group in the United States).

But so far, that is not working out for them. That's because their base voters (especially the racists they invited into their party after the civil rights laws were passed) are not on board with reaching out to minority voters. They still seem to believe they can return to a white's only America, and are opposing any change to the anti-minority and anti-immigrant GOP policies -- and the teabaggers they sent to Congress are taking up that banner for them.

This is good for Democrats. It means it will be easy to keep the coalition they have built in the coming years.