An Early Look At New Hampshire

The charts above are based on results from the WMUR Granite State Poll done between July 18th and July 29th by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The survey questioned 200 likely GOP primary voters (margin of error at 6.9 points), and 190 likely Democratic primary voters (margin of error at 7.1 points).

I have been showing some early national polls about candidate presidential preferences in each party. This poll is different. It gives us a picture of only one state, New Hampshire -- the state that holds the earliest primary vote. Iowa is earlier, but it has a caucus instead of a primary.

There is no surprise on the Democratic side. Hillary Clinton is far and away the first choice of the Democrats of New Hampshire. Biden is in a distant second place -- about 54 points behind Clinton. If Clinton does choose to run, and I think she will, then any other Democrat would be wasting his/her time and money to run against her.

Things are far different on the Republican side though. The Republican nomination could go to any of several candidates. Christie has a small lead in New Hampshire, and he needs to do well there if he is going to run -- because things will be much tougher for him when the primary race moves South. The most interesting part of the poll is the free fall of Marco Rubio. Back in April, Rubio led in this poll. Now he is in fifth place with only 6% support. His support of immigration reform has really hurt him among the Republican base.