Kentucky Senate Race Is Still A Toss-Up

Almost anyone discussing the 2014 Senate race last year would have predicted a pretty easy victory for Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. After all, it is unheard of for the leader of a political party in either house of Congress to be defeated for re-election. But the American voters are unhappy right now, and they are just as unhappy with Congress in a red state like Kentucky as they are anywhere else -- and that has put McConnell's senate seat in jeopardy.

The charts above were made from information in a survey done by Stone Research Services between October 21st and 27th of 600 randomly chosen Kentucky adults, with a margin of error of 4 points. The survey was commissioned by the SMART Transportation Division of the Kentucky State Legislative Board.

This poll has McConnell with a 1 point lead over Democrat Allison Grimes. Two previous polls have had Grimes with a 2 point lead. But all of those "leads" are insignificant, since they fall well within the margin of error. That means the race is still, just as it has been for a couple of months, a dead heat and either candidate could win.

The middle and bottom charts above show why this race is so close. McConnell is upside-down in his favorable rating (35% favorable and 55% unfavorable). And almost no one likes the leadership (or lack thereof) that McConnell displayed during the government shutdown and debt ceiling negotiations. Only 11% thought he displayed good leadership, while 47% said it was poor and 33% labeled it an absolute failure.