These are the latest state polls for the party nominations for president. For the Republicans, Scott Walker leads in Illinois -- but Donald Trump is not doing badly. He is in second place, 5 points behind Walker and 7 points ahead of Jeb Bush (who finished in third). Things are different in Iowa and Florida. In Iowa, Trump has a 15.5 point lead over second place finisher Walker. In Florida, Trump has a 6.1 point lead over Bush (who finished in second).
For Democrats, the Illinois and Iowa polls show Hillary Clinton maintains a significant lead over Bernie Sanders -- by 37 points in Illinois, and by 26.8 points in Iowa. The Florida poll did not survey Democrats.
The Illinois poll is by Public Policy Polling. It was done on July 20th and 21st. The queried 369 Republicans (moe of 5.1 points) and 409 Democrats (moe of 4.9 points).
The Iowa survey is the One America / Gravis Marketing Poll. It was done on July 29th, and contained 277 Republicans (moe of 6.5 points) and 236 Democrats (moe of 6.4 points).
The Florida results are from the St. Pete Poll. It was done between July 18th and 28th and surveyed 1,902 Republicans, with a 2.2 point margin of error.
I think that Iowa poll is an outlier. RCP still have Walker significantly ahead.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure where I stand on Trump, but I think I like the idea of him being the Republican candidate. It isn't just that I figure he would lose. I think if anything, he would make a better president than the other Republicans. But I'll admit, I don't stay up on this stuff. So feel free to set me straight! But it seems like the old base-establishment divide where the only true difference is in the rhetoric, not the policies.
I don't think Trump could win, or would be a good president. But you might be right that he would be better than the other GOP candidates. The others would take their marching orders from the corporate elite, but Trump would not. He's a maverick, and I don't think he even likes the other corporate leaders very much (and he's certainly not afraid of them).
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