The Quinnipiac University Poll has released its latest surveys. Between August 7th and 18th, they questioned random residents of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- considered by many to be important "swing states". In Florida they surveyed 477 Republicans (4.5 point moe) and 345 Democrats (5.3 point moe). In Ohio they surveyed 371 Republicans (5.1 point moe) and 353 Democrats (5.2 point moe). And in Pennsylvania they surveyed 443 Republicans (4.7 point moe) and 462 Democrats (4.6 point moe).
Donald Trump has a 4 point lead in Florida over Jeb Bush, and an 11 point lead in Pennsylvania over Ben Carson -- the second place finishers in those states. That's a poor showing for Bush, because Florida is his home state (and he should be expected to carry it). Trump trails John Kasich in Ohio by 6 points (Kasich's home state).
You may note that I didn't put Perry, Pataki, Graham, and Gilmore on the chart above. That is because none of those four candidates was able to garner even 1% support in any of the three states. Including them, with their zero percentages, would have just made the chart harder to read.
On the Democratic side, Clinton has a 33 point lead in Florida, a 30 point lead in Ohio, and a 26 point lead in Pennsylvania. Bernie Sanders finished second in all three states.
It's still early, but it seems that I was wrong about Walker. I knew he was boring. But I figured he was vile in all the right ways. I'm very pleased to see him doing so poorly. Trump 2016!
ReplyDeleteI'm blown away by how many candidates there are with virtually no support.
ReplyDeleteBig names, too: Perry, Christie, Jindal, Graham. In any other year, those four names could have been the slate.