The charts above show the results of a new Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between August 27th and September 8th of a random sample of 832 likely Democratic caucus-goers, and has a 3.4 point margin of error.
This survey shows Bernie Sanders (41%) holding a 1 point lead over Hillary Clinton (40%), and a 29 point lead over Joe Biden (12%). If you take Biden out of the equation (and he is not a candidate), then Clinton (47%) has a 3 point lead over Sanders (44%).
The differences between Clinton and Sanders (both with and without Biden) are within the margin of error of the poll. That means Quinnipiac has Clinton and Sanders in a dead heat in Iowa.
I'm not sure what to think about Iowa results. While other states (and national numbers) have been pretty consistent, the poll numbers for Iowa have been all over the place. Other polls within the last two weeks have shown Clinton with a 34 point lead, a 7 point lead, and a 25.3 point lead (see charts below). Now we get this one showing Clinton and Sanders are tied.
Is Iowa really a dead heat? Maybe. But it'll be interesting to see what future polls show about the state.
What this seems to indicate is that Biden entering the race would hurt Clinton more than others. I think that's something that Biden ought to think about. Of course, I don't see Biden entering the race. And your comment yesterday indicated that you feel the same way. Certainly he isn't going to enter the race unless he feels he has a good shot at winning. It wouldn't be a vanity project.
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