Sunday, October 18, 2015

After A Strong Debate, Clinton Closes Gap In New Hampshire


A month ago, it looked like Bernie Sanders might run away with the primary in New Hampshire. He had a large and growing lead. The last New Hampshire poll showed Hillary Clinton had closed the gap a little, and was trailing by only about 7 points. But 7 points is significant (beyond the margin of error of the poll).

But if the latest poll is to be believed, Sanders is no longer leading in New Hampshire. It shows Clinton with a 2 point lead. That is not a significant lead (since it is within the poll's margin of error), but it does show that New Hampshire is once again in play -- and either Sanders or Clinton could win that state's primary.

How has Clinton erased her deficit in New Hampshire? The two charts below could help provide an answer. About 54% of the state's Democrats who watched the debate say Clinton won it (while only 24% say Sanders won). But perhaps more important, about 52% say Clinton has the best chance of beating the Republican candidate next November (while only 16% say Sanders has the best chance).

These charts were made from the Suffolk University / Boston Globe Poll -- done on October 14th and 15th of a random sample of 500 likely New Hampshire primary voters, and has a margin of error of 4.4 points.



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