Sunday, October 11, 2015

Is Hillary Clinton Closing The Gap In New Hampshire ?


This chart reflects the results of the latest poll in New Hampshire. It is the Gravis Marketing Poll -- done on October 5th and 6th of a random sample of 373 registered New Hampshire Democrats, with a 5.1 point margin of error.

While other recent surveys have shown Bernie Sanders with a significant lead in this state, this poll shows something different. It has Sanders with only a 2.6 point lead over Hillary Clinton. That's well within the poll's margin of error. If the poll is correct, then Clinton has significantly cut into Sanders lead in New Hampshire (the only state where he's leading). And there's a huge segment of voters that are undecided (and could break either way).

I'm not sure I accept these numbers, and it will be interesting to see what future New Hampshire polls show -- especially after the debate. But this poll is not good news for Sanders. He must hang on to New Hampshire if he is to convince voters in other states to back him.

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