I previously brought you the results of Iowa polls that showed Ben Carson is now leading Donald Trump in that state -- the Des Moines Register / Bloomberg Poll and the Quinnipiac University Poll. Donald Trump refused to accept the results of those two polls, calling them "small polls", and said he believed he was still winning in Iowa. But it looks like Trump was wrong. Now two more polls show he is losing in Iowa.
First is the Monmouth University Poll -- done between October 22nd and 25th of a random sample of 400 likely GOP Iowa voters, with a margin of error of 4.9 points.
Next is the Loras College Poll -- done between October 19th and 22nd of a random sample of 500 likely Iowa GOP voters, with a margin of error of 4.4 points.
The Monmouth poll has Carson with a 14 point lead, and the Loras poll has Carson leading by 12 points. Those are significant margins -- far beyond the margins of error. I think it can safely be said that Trump has faded in Iowa.
Does that mean Trump is fading nationally? No. There is no evidence yet that his lead is in danger in other states.
Does this mean the Republican candidate will be either Donald Trump or Ben Carson? Again, I would say No. I still have trouble believing either one will be the eventual nominee (although I would love that, because I think Clinton could easily beat either of them). But I believe the business-oriented establishment Republicans also think neither could actually be elected. And when the primaries draw a bit closer, I think they will start spending massive amounts of money to deflate Trump's numbers.
As for Carson, he has some of the weirdest views of any candidate (and the establishment Republicans know that). I also have trouble thinking Carson could win simply because of the large number of racists within that party. They are not going to nominate a black man as president -- not even an Uncle Tom like Carson.
So who will be the eventual nominee? I have said in the past that I think it will be Marco Rubio. But I would not count Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz out yet. Bush has a lot of money left to spend, and Cruz would be the heir apparent of Trump's teabagger votes if Trump does start to fade.
But that's just my best guess. In truth, the Republican race is still a mess, and could go to anyone at this point. What's your guess?
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