Arizona is normally a safe state for Republican presidential candidates, but this year is different. A couple of polls recently have indicated that the Democratic candidate could actually carry Arizona in the November election. Now another poll shows the state is very close.
The poll is the OH Predictive Insights Poll -- done between August 25th and 27th of a random sample of 728 likely Arizona voters, with a margin of error of 3.63 points. The survey has Clinton with a 1 point lead over Trump -- well within the poll's margin of error. That means this poll thinks the presidential race is a dead heat in Arizona right now.
I continue to expect Trump to only get worse, and when you add in the total lack of ground game -- and the number of Republicans like Ryan, Cruz, Kasich, and Cotton whose 2020 dreams require Trump's loss as well as those who simply hate the man (McCain and a LOT of ordinarily right wing commentators like Nicole Wallace, Steve Schmidt and Charlie Sykes) and then the reenergizing of the Hispanic opposition that last night's speech will cause, and places like AZ and GA are well into the blue end of purple, and between the Catholic and Mormon history of being bigoted against, even the Wyomings, Idahos, etc are swinging to mid-range purple. I wouldn't be surprised to see Trump end up with Mississippi and a Dakpta, and maybe Oklahoma -- at best. But I haven't been kidding when I've wondered, if everything breaks well for us, who would be chosen to make the "Monroe sacrifice" and who that one elector would go for.
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