Democrats Must Not Misread The Current Political Mood

It is still looking like a blue wave is building for the 2018 elections. Polls show that Democrats currently enjoy between a 6 and 8 point advantage in generic ballot polling. That is about where they need to be to flip at least one of the houses of Congress. And polls show that Democrats are currently more enthused to vote this year than Republicans. We can only hope that enthusiasm lasts until November, and actually translates into votes.

But Democrats need to be careful. There are some progressives that want the Democratic Party to make a significant move to the left. They are interpreting the current situation as a public move to the left. As a progressive myself, I wish that was true. It would be my dream to see the country move to the left and embrace all the progressive ideas. The problem is that it's just not true -- at least not right now.

The political mood of the country is leaning toward Democrats. But a large part of that mood is because of unhappiness with Donald Trump and the Republican Congress. The see the government as moving too far too the right. But it is not a desire of the public to move to the left. It is that most people want to return to the political center. They want an end to the extreme partisanship, and they want candidates who can compromise to solve problems rather than cling to an ideology of either the right or the left. This is also exhibited in current polls (see charts below).

The truth is that while most Americans would like to see the Democrats control Congress after the 2018 elections, they are not really happy with either party. The NBC/WSJ poll shows that the public thinks both Republicans and Democrats are out of step with mainstream thought -- Democrats by 23 points, and Republicans by 24 points.

The YouGov poll shows something similar -- that 40% of voters think Democrats are too liberal and an almost equal 38% think Republicans are too conservative. They don't want extremism from either party, whether it is on the left or on the right. The Republicans have ignored that, and it is costing them dearly. Democrats should not make the same mistake. Moving far to the left right now (before the public is ready to do so) could destroy the small advantage Democrats currently enjoy.

What we have coming up in November is an election -- not a liberal or conservative wish-list. The only important thing is winning. We can discuss and push for more progressive ideas after winning, but if we don't win those ideas will not matter. There are not enough Democrats or Republicans to swing an election (except in a few safe districts). The control of Congress will be decided by Independents choosing one party over the other -- and they are mostly moderates. The party they view as the least extreme will win.

The NBC News / Wall Street Journal Poll was done between July 15th and 18th of a national sample of 900 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.27 points.

The Economist / YouGov Poll was done between July 15th and 17th of a national sample of 1,272 registered voters, with a 3 point margin of error.