Could Trump Build A Wall By Declaring National Emergency?

(Cartoon image is by Randall Enos at cagle.com.)

The government shutdown has ended until February 15th to give Congress a chance to negotiate a way out of the current mess over building a wall between the United States and Mexico. Is a compromise possible?

Trump still insists that he must get the $5.7 billion to start building his wall (which would cost in total at least $25 billion, and probably much more). Democrats still insist they will not give him money for a wall. There is some chance they will agree to $5.7 billion for "border security", but that would not include any money for a wall -- instead supplying funds for technological tools, more border officers, and repairing/replacing existing border "barriers".

Is that good enough for Trump? Probably not. He has said he has two options if he doesn't get money for his wall -- to again shutdown the government, or to declare a national emergency and have the military build the wall.

The first option is not a real one (unless Trump is a complete idiot). Trump bore the brunt of blame for the first shutdown, and if he vetoed an effort by Congress to keep the government open with a compromise budget (including money for "border security"), he would again be blamed -- and probably by an even larger margin this time. And just like before, the Democrats could not give in (because doing so would just give Trump a tool to override Congress on other things he wants).

That leaves only one possibility -- to declare a national emergency and try to use funds appropriated for other things to build his wall. Democrats would immediately go to court to stop that. And they would be on pretty solid ground -- first, because there is no real emergency, and second, because he would be trying to do an end run around Congress by using funds for something they were not appropriated.

Trump probably thinks the Supreme Court would come down on his side. He might be right, but I suspect they would do their best to avoid the issue -- letting it work its way slowly through the District Court and Appeals Court levels first. And there would likely be an injunction stopping the emergency declaration while that happens.

I think it is likely that Trump will try to go the "national emergency" route. But I don't think it would be successful, and many conservatives will be afraid that a future liberal president would use this as a precedent to impose something he wants (but Congress has blocked).

Trump would be smart to just take what Congress gives him for "border security" and declare it a victory -- even though it doesn't include money for a wall. But then, Trump hasn't shown much intelligence so far.