Economic Class Matters During An Epidemic

The charts above reflect the results of a new Axios / Ipsos Poll. They surveyed 1,355 adults nationwide between March 27th and 30th, and the survey had a 2.8 point margin of error.

It's easy for the media and government officials to tell people they should be working from home. But there are a lot of people, especially in the lower - lower middle - middle classes that don't have that option. They work at jobs that require their presence. Far more upper middle and upper class individuals have that option.

The bottom half are also more likely to be laid-off or furloughed because their workplace is closed.

Social and economic class matters in an emergency like this epidemic. Those who earn the least are hurt the worst -- and sadly, get less government help. That needs to change.

Public Says Coronavirus Is An Emergency & Won't End Soon

The charts above reflect the results of the newest Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between March 22nd and 24th of a national sample of 1500 adults, with a 3.2 point margin of error.

The American public is taking the Coronavirus epidemic seriously. About 81% say it is a national emergency. And they don't think it will end soon. Only 23% think it will be over in about a month, while 46% say it will last several months and 14% think it will last a year or more.

Senate Agrees With Public - Votes To End Trump's Emergency

The public has never liked Donald Trump's emergency declaration to shift funds from other purposes to build his border wall. As this recent Quinnipiac University Poll shows, about two-thirds of the public (66%) oppose the emergency declaration while only 31% support it (Trump hardcore base).

The House of Representatives passed a resolution (HJ Res 46) a couple of weeks ago to rescind that emergency declaration. Yesterday, the Senate voted on that resolution -- and it passed 59 to 41. All Democrats and both Independents voted for the resolution. The surprise was that 12 Republicans joined them in voting for it. It was expected that about 6 to 8 would do that, but 12 was a pleasant surprise (and it showed that Trump may be losing his grip on the GOP-controlled Senate).

Trump has said he would veto the resolution, and repeated that after the Senate passed it. Could the veto be overridden? That's doubtful. It would require another 8 Republicans to switch and vote with the Democrats, Independents, and the 12 Republicans -- and that is not likely.

While the Senate vote was good to see, it looks like we'll still have to count on the courts to stop Trump's unconstitutional power grab.

Texans Split Over The Wall - But Oppose National Emergency

The charts above reflect the results of a new Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between February 20th and 25th of a sample of 1,222 Texas voters, with a margin of error of 3.4 points.

The state of Texas has a 1,954 mile border with Mexico. That's far longer than any other state. It would make sense then, if any state suffered from the U.S. not having a wall between itself and Mexico, it would be Texas.

But that is not the case. Texas has a symbiotic relationship with Mexico -- a relationship that benefits both parties. And most Texans know that -- even though it is still a very red state.

As this poll shows, less than half of Texans (48%) want a border wall built, and an equal amount (48%) oppose building that wall. That's telling -- that a very red border state does not accept the fear mongering of Donald Trump.

It gets worse for Trump. A majority (52%) does not consider undocumented immigrants crossing the border to be a national emergency. A larger majority (60%) opposes Trump declaring a national emergency to build the wall. About 57% say the proposed wall would not decrease violent crime in the United States, and 54% say it would not decrease the amount of illegal drugs. And to cap it off, about 62% oppose seizing private property to build the wall.

Texans, who share the longest border with Mexico, know that Trump is just playing political games with the immigration issue.

Open Letter From Former GOP Congressmen To Current Ones

It isn't just Democrats that oppose Donald Trump's declaration of a national emergency to build his border wall (using money that Congress appropriated for another purpose).

Some Republicans also oppose it. They understand that Trump is just trying to do an unconstitutional end run around Congress -- and that his action fundamentally alters the palace of power in our national government.

Below is an open letter from former Republican Congressional office holders to the current Republican members of Congress. I hope those current members of Congress will listen to their fellow Republicans and vote to rein in Trump's power grab.

They write:

As Republican Members of Congress, each of us started with one central understanding of our party’s overarching commitment: to honor our pledge to protect and defend the Constitution of the United States. After each election, when our constituents granted us the privilege to again represent them in Congress, we renewed that pledge. It has always been a Republican fundamental principle that no matter how strong our policy preferences, no matter how deep our loyalties to presidents or party leaders, in order to remain a constitutional republic we must act within the borders of the Constitution. Our oath is to put the country and its Constitution above everything, including party politics or loyalty to a president.

We who have signed this letter are no longer Members of Congress but that oath still burns within us. That is why we are coming together to urge those of you who are now charged with upholding the authority of the first branch of government to resist efforts to surrender those powers to a president.

We offer two arguments against allowing a president—any president, regardless of party—to circumvent congressional authority. One is the constitutional placing of all lawmaking power in the hands of the people’s representatives. Article 1 of the Constitution, which vests the legislative branch with specific powers, states in section 9: “No money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law.” The power of the purse rests with Congress because it is comprised of 535 representatives of the taxpayer and is the most direct connection between those being governed and those governing. If you allow a president to ignore Congress, it will be not your authority but that of your constituents that is deprived of the protections of true representative government.

The second argument goes directly to the question each of you must face: how much are you willing to undermine both the Constitution and the Congress in order to advance a policy outcome that by all other legitimate means is not achievable? The current issue—a wall on our southern border—has gone through the process put in place by the Constitution. It has been proposed by the President, it has been debated by Congress, and the representatives of the people allocated funding at a level deemed appropriate by Congress. We understand that there are many Members of Congress who disagree with the final funding compromise reached by a bipartisan group of legislators. To you, we ask this question: what will you do when a president of another party uses the precedent you are establishing to impose policies to which you are unalterably opposed? There is no way around this difficulty: what powers are ceded to a president whose policies you support may also be used by presidents whose policies you abhor.

Like us, you have taken an oath of office. You were elected to Congress to carry out the constitutional duties and responsibilities of the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate. You were sent to Congress to be the voice of the people. That is an awesome burden and it may require you to exercise restraint to protect the constitutional model—that which is the root of American exceptionalism—and to keep it from being sacrificed on the altar of expediency.

We who have served where you serve now call on you to honor your oath of office and to protect the Constitution and the responsibilities it vested in Congress. We ask that you pass a joint resolution terminating the emergency declared by the President on February 15, 2019.

Steve Bartlett
United States House of Representatives (R-TX), 1983-1991
Douglas Bereuter
United States House of Representatives (R-NE), 1979-2004
Sherwood Boehlert
United States House of Representatives (R-NY), 1983-2007
Rodney Chandler
United States House of Representatives (R-WA), 1983-1993
William Clinger Jr.
United States House of Representatives (R-PA), 1979-1997
Tom Coleman
United States House of Representatives (R-MO), 1976-1993
John Danforth
United States Senate (R-MO), 1977-1995
Mickey Edwards
United States House of Representatives (R-OK), 1977-1993
David F. Emery
United States House of Representatives (R- ME), 1975-1983
Chuck Hagel
United States Senate (R-NE), 1997-2009
Gordon Humphrey
United States Senate (R-NH), 1979-1990
Nancy Johnson
United States House of Representatives (R-CT), 1983-2007
James Kolbe
United States House of Representatives (R-AZ), 1985-2007
James Leach
United States House of Representatives (R-IA), 1977-2007
John LeBoutillier
United States House of Representatives (R-NY), 1981-1983
Richard Lugar
United States Senate (R-IN), 1977-2013
Pete McCloskey
United States House of Representatives (R-CA), 1967-1983

Thomas Petri
United States House of Representatives (R-WI), 1979-2015
Claudine Schneider
United States House of Representatives (R-RI), 1981-1991
Christopher Shays
United States House of Representatives (R-CT), 1987-2009
Peter Smith
United States House of Representatives (R-VT), 1989-1991
Olympia Snowe
United States Senate (R-ME), 1995-2013
Alan Steelman
United States House of Representatives (R- TX), 1973-1977

And The Lawsuits Have Started Over Trump's "Emergency"

The chart above is from a new NPR / PBS NewsHour / Marist Poll -- done between February 15th and 17th of a national sample of 807 adults, with a 4.6 point margin of error. It shows the public does not like (or support) Trump declaring a national emergency to build his border wall. Only 36% approve, while 61% disapproves (about 6 out of 10 people). That's a gap of 25 points favoring disapproval of Trump's action. It's obvious that Trump has just created more problems for himself.

But public disapproval is not his only problem. Sixteen states have joined together and filed a lawsuit against the emergency order. They seek to stop it. Filing in the United States District Court for the Northern District of California, the state of California was joined by Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and Virginia.

This is just the beginning of what could be a protracted court battle, and other lawsuits are sure to follow. There won't be a wall built anytime soon.

Americans Oppose Trump's Emergency Declaration For Wall

Donald Trump has followed through on his threat to declare a national emergency to get funding to build a wall between the United States in Mexico. There is no emergency, but that doesn't matter to Trump. He's just trying to extricate himself from the bind he put himself in.

He promised his voters throughout the 2016 campaign that he would build a wall on our Southern border, and says he will keep his promise. Of course, he already broken that promise, since he said the wall would be paid for by Mexico. But he's ignoring that.

He shut down the government, and took credit for doing it -- causing the longest government shutdown in this nation's history. But that failed. He took a hit in the polls for doing it, and finally capitulated -- agreeing to a short extension with no border wall funding.

He painted himself further into a corner by again threatening to shut down the government or declare a national emergency if the short extension didn't result in the amount of wall funding he wanted ($5.7 billion). He didn't get the money, and came out looking weak and unable to keep his promise.

He signed the budget that gave him less than $1.4 billion for the wall, and then declared a national emergency. He wants to use that to transfer funds from military projects and disaster relief to building a wall. But numerous agencies are already lining up to sue to stop the national emergency, and Congress may also act to end it.

I don't think Trump expects his national emergency gambit to succeed. His own Justice Department warned him that it would likely be tied up in court and probably wouldn't succeed. That doesn't matter. It's just to make his supporters believe that he's trying to do what they want. He now looks weak and ineffective, and he's hoping the declaration will make him look strong.

The emergency declaration will probably work among his most rabid supporters, But he's not winning over most Americans. Note in the chart above that six different polls all show the public opposes the emergency declaration by large margins. The are:

CNN / SSRS Poll -- by a 35 point margin.

CBS News Poll -- by a 32 point margin.

Monmouth University Poll -- by a 30 point margin.

Politico / Morning Consult Poll -- by a 16 point margin.

Quinnipiac University Poll -- by a 35 point margin.

Economist / YouGov Poll -- by a 25 point margin.

Trump Is Trying To Grab Autocratic Powers For Himself

(Cartoon image is by Jimmy Margulies at jimmymargulies.com.)

Donald Trump envies the autocratic power of rulers like Kim Jong-Un, Putin, bin-Salman, Erdogan, and Duterte. That is obvious by the deference he shows them. He wants that same kind of power, and is frustrated by our constitutional system of government. He has defied Congress by refusing to impose sanctions they passed on Russia (and removing some of those sanctions), by refusing to act to punish a foreign government that brutally murdered a journalist working for a U.S. newspaper, by refusing to acknowledge Russia interfered in the 2016 election, and now by declaring a national emergency to bypass the wishes of Congress.

Here is how Robert Reich describes Trump's attempt to grab dictatorial powers:

A president who claims he has an absolute right to declare a national emergency and spend government funds that Congress has explicitly refused to appropriate for the ends he seeks, is assuming the role of a dictator.

A president who shuts down government in order to get his way on a controversial issue, such as building a wall along the border with Mexico, and offers to reopen it as a concession when and if his opponents give in, is treating the government of the United States as a bargaining chip. This, too, is the behavior of a dictator.

As is spouting lies over what Trump terms an “undeniable crisis” at the southern U.S. border, which is in fact no crisis at all.  

Donald Trump is violating the Constitution. He is negating our system of government based on the rule of law. He is violating a president’s core responsibility to protect American democracy. 

But the threat to American democracy is not just from Trump’s dictatorial moves. And real threat to American sovereignty is not coming from Trump’s fantasized hordes seeking to cross the Mexican border. 

It is coming from a foreign government intent on undermining our democracy by propagating lies, turning Americans against each other, and electing a puppet president.

We do not know yet whether Trump colluded with Vladimir Putin to win the 2016 election. What we do know so far is that Trump’s aides and campaign manager worked with Putin’s emissaries during the 2016 election, and that Putin sought to swing the election in favor of Trump. 

We also know that since he was elected, Trump has done little or nothing to stop Putin from continuing to try to undermine our democracy. To the contrary, Trump has obstructed inquiries into Russian meddling, and gone out of his way to keep his communications with Putin secret, even from his own White House.  

He has also done exactly what Putin has wanted him to do – threaten to pull out of NATO, pull out of Syria, and accept Russia’s presence in Ukraine. 

Perhaps Trump’s current attack on American democracy through his assertion of a fake national emergency is intended as to distract from this larger attack on America. No matter. Both threaten the essence of the nation. 

There is only one answer: Donald Trump must be removed from office. Impeachment should start immediately.  

Public Says NO To Declaring National Emergency For Wall

Donald Trump is still threatening to declare a national emergency to use money budgeted for other purposes to build his border wall. It might or might not be constitutional, but the chances are growing that he will try to do that.

If he does, it will please 67% of those who voted for him in 2016 and 62% of Republicans. No other group supports that though. Those over 65 years old are split on the question (45% to 45%). Men, Hispanics, and Independents have a strong plurality against declaring a national emergency. All other demographic groups oppose it with a clear majority. There is also majority opposition among all adults (52%) and registered voters (55%).

But pleasing Republicans or his base voters is not going to help his job approval (or his chances to be re-elected).

The chart reflects the results of the newest Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between February 2nd and 5th of a national sample of 1,500 adults (including 1,294 registered voters). The margin of error is 3 points for adults, and 2.8 points for registered voters.

The Public Is Opposed To Declaring Emergency To Build Wall

Donald Trump is still wanting to build his border wall between the United States and Mexico. He shut down the government last month to get $5.7 billion to start construction on the wall, but wound up opening the government back up without getting anything. Now Congress is trying to negotiate a budget before the deadline of February 15th.

Trump is saying if he doesn't get his $5.7 billion in the new budget, he will either shut down the government again, or he will declare a national emergency to use other government funds to build his wall.

I doubt he'll shut the government down again. He took too big a hit in the polls last time. So did congressional Republicans. I doubt either will want to repeat that, and the Senate Republicans might even join Democrats to overturn a possible Trump veto.

That just leaves one option -- declaring a national emergency. And I'm starting to think that's exactly what Trump will try to do. There's a good chance it would be stopped by the courts (as being unconstitutional, since no real emergency exists). But I don't think Trump cares about that, and sees it as a win regardless of what the courts do.

If they let him get away with declaring an emergency, then he gets to start his wall. If they don't, then he'll just shrug his shoulders and tell his odious base that he tried, and the evil Democrats and terrible courts wouldn't let him do it. It's the only way out of the box he has put himself in.

But while it may be his only option, it's not one that will ingratiate himself with the public. By a large margin, the public is opposed to declaring a national emergency to build a wall. This is verified by three different polls -- the CBS News Poll, the CNN / SSRS Poll, and the Economist / YouGov Poll.

Public Opposed To Declaring National Emergency For A Wall

There is no support in Congress (either the Democratic House or the GOP Senate) for another government shutdown -- even though Trump has threatened that to get money for his unpopular border wall. The odds are that if he tried to do it again, he would be overridden by Congress.

That leaves Trump with only his second threat -- to declare a national emergency and have the military build a border wall. It's debatable whether that would even be legal, but one thing is certain -- it would be very unpopular with the American public.

Three new polls show that the public would be opposed to that -- a Morning Consult Poll by 12 points, a Monmouth Poll by 30 points, and a Quinnipiac Poll by 35 points.

Trump needs to improve his numbers. Declaring a national emergency to force building a wall will do just the opposite.

The Quinnipiac University Poll was done between January 25th and 28th of a national sample of 1,004 voters, with a 3.7 point margin of error.

The Monmouth University Poll was done between January 25th and 27th of a national sample of 805 adults, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

The Politico / Morning Consult Poll was done between January 25th and 27th of a national sample of 1.997 registered voters, with a 2 point margin of error.

Could Trump Build A Wall By Declaring National Emergency?

(Cartoon image is by Randall Enos at cagle.com.)

The government shutdown has ended until February 15th to give Congress a chance to negotiate a way out of the current mess over building a wall between the United States and Mexico. Is a compromise possible?

Trump still insists that he must get the $5.7 billion to start building his wall (which would cost in total at least $25 billion, and probably much more). Democrats still insist they will not give him money for a wall. There is some chance they will agree to $5.7 billion for "border security", but that would not include any money for a wall -- instead supplying funds for technological tools, more border officers, and repairing/replacing existing border "barriers".

Is that good enough for Trump? Probably not. He has said he has two options if he doesn't get money for his wall -- to again shutdown the government, or to declare a national emergency and have the military build the wall.

The first option is not a real one (unless Trump is a complete idiot). Trump bore the brunt of blame for the first shutdown, and if he vetoed an effort by Congress to keep the government open with a compromise budget (including money for "border security"), he would again be blamed -- and probably by an even larger margin this time. And just like before, the Democrats could not give in (because doing so would just give Trump a tool to override Congress on other things he wants).

That leaves only one possibility -- to declare a national emergency and try to use funds appropriated for other things to build his wall. Democrats would immediately go to court to stop that. And they would be on pretty solid ground -- first, because there is no real emergency, and second, because he would be trying to do an end run around Congress by using funds for something they were not appropriated.

Trump probably thinks the Supreme Court would come down on his side. He might be right, but I suspect they would do their best to avoid the issue -- letting it work its way slowly through the District Court and Appeals Court levels first. And there would likely be an injunction stopping the emergency declaration while that happens.

I think it is likely that Trump will try to go the "national emergency" route. But I don't think it would be successful, and many conservatives will be afraid that a future liberal president would use this as a precedent to impose something he wants (but Congress has blocked).

Trump would be smart to just take what Congress gives him for "border security" and declare it a victory -- even though it doesn't include money for a wall. But then, Trump hasn't shown much intelligence so far.

Public Doesn't Support Wall, Shutdown, Or Emergency

The charts above use information contained in a new Washington Post / ABC News Poll -- done between January 8th and 11th of a national sample of 788 adults, with a 4.5 point margin of error.

It mirrors what other recent polls have shown. A majority of the public does not want Trump's border wall to be built. A majority of the public blames Trump and the Republicans for the government shutdown. And a huge majority of the public does not want Trump to declare a national emergency to build his wall.

Trump may be pleasing right-wing pundits and his racist/xenophobic base with his recent actions, but he is working against the wishes of most Americans.

Will Donald Trump Take The Authoritarian Way Out Of His Self-Imposed Dilemma?

Today marks the 20th day of Donald Trump's shutdown of the government. In only two more days, the shutdown will be the longest government shutdown in United States history -- and it looks like that will happen.

Trump has badly miscalculated this action, and shown he knows nothing about how our government works (and is a terrible negotiator). A real negotiation is one where each side is willing to discuss a solution. The Democrats have said they are willing to discuss ways to increase border security. Trump has refused to discuss any solution that does not include giving him money to start building a border wall.

Trump is not going to get his wall. A majority of Americans don't want the wall, and the House of Representatives (controlled by Democrats) is not going to approve money for a wall. Those are just facts. But Trump has doubled down on his demand for a wall, saying he would keep the government shutdown until he gets it -- even if the shutdown continues for months (or years).

The shutdown will not continue for months. Even Trump's Republican supporters in Congress will not allow that. That means Trump has now painted himself in a corner and has a self-imposed dilemma. If he caves in and opens the government, he will look foolish (and his rabid narcissism will not allow that). If he continues to hold out, Congress will eventually override him and open the government anyway -- making him look not only foolish, but weak.

That leaves him only one other option -- the tyrant's option. He could declare a fake national emergency to bypass Congress and use military funds to build his wall. This would precipitate a governmental crisis, and the fate of our democracy would be left to the court system to decide if he had overreached his powers. If the courts backed Trump, it would be devastating for our democracy -- because it would give Trump a blueprint for imposing other things he wants to do while ignoring the wishes of the public or Congress.

Instead of a system of checks and balances composed of three branches of government, we would then be well on the way to having a tyrannical presidency wielding power over Congress and the courts.

These are dangerous days for our country and system of government. It's up to Congress (and the elected members of both parties) to prevent this.

NOTE -- I apologize for the bad grammar in the chart. It should read "have lasted".